tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23343956189530785432024-03-17T21:00:56.644-06:00Colorado Economy JournalUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger287125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-59080119063122685422020-02-01T12:48:00.001-07:002020-02-01T12:48:54.627-07:00Rent growth has slowed in Colorado Springs over the past two yearsFor the first time in years, I updated the Colorado Springs vacancy and rent graphs.<br />
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First, let's look at the vacancy rate for the region. During the third quarter of 2019, the Colorado Springs vacancy rate fell to 5.0 percent. That's down from 5.4 percent during the second quarter, and it was down from 5.2 percent as recorded during the third quarter of 2018, one year earlier.<br />
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2019's third quarter rate was the lowest vacancy rate recorded since the third quarter of 2016, when the rate was 4.0 percent.<br />
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This suggests vacancies are in a downward trend at the moment, but there rate isn't exactly at historical lows. Five percent suggests mostly full units, but I wouldn't describe it as an especially "tight" market.<br />
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Not surprisingly, though, this decline in vacancy in the last two years has come with rent growth — but not <i>a lot</i> of rent growth.<br />
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From the third quarter of 2017 to the third quarter of 2019, the average rent grew 8.6 percent (or 98 dollars) from $1,113 to $1,231.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFl4P_nDmkZMLV43ZBOm7tT3smdvYv052yyASbX3hXLOUpZAkz7b_0TBj3-9lN6qEZY9Fk66jqaWG53bQL6PhtFojvmDEY-4pvu4VJWvozzt_frDyZpuoZ24vSVqay2c5MJWQEwKiX5yY8/s1600/rent1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="483" data-original-width="672" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFl4P_nDmkZMLV43ZBOm7tT3smdvYv052yyASbX3hXLOUpZAkz7b_0TBj3-9lN6qEZY9Fk66jqaWG53bQL6PhtFojvmDEY-4pvu4VJWvozzt_frDyZpuoZ24vSVqay2c5MJWQEwKiX5yY8/s640/rent1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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This is an average, so is skewed upward by new construction. As noted <a href="https://gazette.com/business/colorado-springs-apartment-rents-jump-to-another-record-high/article_ad1a8aa8-fa6f-11e9-9915-eb09c9c5998d.html">in October in the Gazette</a>: <br />
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Most Colorado Springs-area apartment projects built in recent years
have been upscale, amenity-filled communities that command top dollar
for rents, said Laura Nelson, the Apartment Association’s executive
director.<br />
<br />
“The only supply we’re adding is high end,” she said.
“So when you add high-end units, then it pulls your average up. That
doesn’t necessarily mean than everything is going up that high. But when
that’s all that you’re adding in, it throws off the average.”<br />
<br />
Though several apartment projects have been built in recent years, the overall supply might not be keeping up with demand.<br />
<br />
In
the third quarter, only about 2,600 of the area’s supply of 51,142
apartments were available for rent — a 5 percent vacancy rate that was
the lowest in three years, the Housing Division and Apartment
Association report shows.<br />
<br />
Nearly 750 units have been added to the
area’s supply in the first three quarters of the year, which is about
the same number as during the same period in 2018, according to the
report. Even so, an additional 1,178 apartments have been occupied since
the start of the year.</blockquote>
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If we looked at growth in <i>median</i> rent, the increased would like be smaller, since median numbers are less skewed by new product. I don't have the median numbers yet for the third quarter, but the growth in median rent from the third quarter of 2017 to the second quarter of 2019 actually went <i>down</i> by 10.9 percent. This may have been driven by declines in rents in older and less desirable units. <br />
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Year-over-year growth in average rent has slowed over the past two years compared to 2016-2017 when YOY growth frequently topped ten percent.<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-27735910723238702912020-01-31T14:16:00.001-07:002020-01-31T14:16:42.933-07:00New Mesa County Foreclosures Hit 12-Year Low in DecemberLast time, we saw that "releases of deeds of trust" spiked in Mesa County. That suggests some strong demand for for-sale housing in the GJ metro area.<br />
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So, not surprisingly, we also find that foreclosures in the area fell to a 12-year low in the area. In fact, these numbers may be lower than anything we've seen in much more than 12 years, but I only have data going back to 2008. In other words, there were fewer new foreclosures in December 2019 than in any other month during which I collected this data.<br />
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Specifically, during December, there were 11 notices of election and demand. The "NED filing" is the first step in the foreclosure process. That's down from 17 in November 2011, and it's down from December 2018 when 19 NEDs were filed. As the blue line shows below, the NED filings total is even down from where it was in 2008.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpMIMQbkztJNSt9JryL_FBqoSAAeO0keKq9uI3MNqnM3yN6ST_ORA-DhefqsLE2gNk1xY4ntHyG73z140-oNbaKQRzE07u-aaaVKr5ETkXaNKp-RYmPJX3fr1r3djBEpq4h2wPq_BHi5OC/s1600/mesafc.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="625" data-original-width="958" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpMIMQbkztJNSt9JryL_FBqoSAAeO0keKq9uI3MNqnM3yN6ST_ORA-DhefqsLE2gNk1xY4ntHyG73z140-oNbaKQRzE07u-aaaVKr5ETkXaNKp-RYmPJX3fr1r3djBEpq4h2wPq_BHi5OC/s640/mesafc.png" width="640" /></a></div>
The other measure of foreclosure activity "auction sales" has not dropped off quite as much. The "sale" step of the process is the end of the foreclosure process when the property is auctioned off to a new owner.<br />
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During December, a total of five properties were foreclosed and sold at auction. That's a low number, but not the lowest we've seen over the past 12 years. Sales totals have been largely flat over the past year, and have returned to what we saw back in early 2008. Nonetheless, foreclosure auction sales can be said to be at historic lows. <br />
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This follows a general statewide trend. Most Colorado counties have seen big decreases in foreclosure activity with combined statewide totals also dipping near 12-year lows.<br />
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Moreover, keep in mind the population of both Mesa County and the state have increased over the past decade, so on a per capita basis, foreclosure activity has fallen well below where they were before 2008. Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-32955113675164073192020-01-31T14:01:00.001-07:002020-01-31T14:01:47.992-07:00Releases of deeds of trust surge in Mesa County<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">A
release of a deed of trust is an event that occurs when a deed of trust
(often referred to as a mortgage) is paid off, either through
refinance, sale, or when all payments have been completed on a home
loan. It is a "positive" economic indicator in sense that areas with
improving economies tend to generally also report increases in releases
of deeds of trust.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Other
factors can be important as well. In cases where there is a housing
shortage, but other economic indicators are robust, we might also see
declining release activity. It's not always easy to know which factors
are the key factors in whether or not releases are going up or down. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We do know, though, that releases tend to go up when interest rates fall. And releases tend to go down when interest rates rise. We've seen this in the combined release data for the state's biggest countries.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Combining the state's big metro counties (plus Broomfield County) we saw that releases headed down in late 2018 as the Federal Reserve began to allow the fed funds rate to rise. The mortgage rate then followed suit, and releases trended downward. During 2019, however, the Fed began to push rates down again, and releases rose again at the same time:</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjunmzh_Zszg0JO_V5y-5YbjOAONdD_tPAmn5mqxwixZuuEZ0KJZ8PuigUof9RIVeP98cJXN2D8-I1BKm27UjWfXYp-kU9VFALjVEg0nxJWrJckwR7LXojzwuzgE8f7NH-C5RRwovgmOkm9/s1600/metrosreleases.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="507" data-original-width="812" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjunmzh_Zszg0JO_V5y-5YbjOAONdD_tPAmn5mqxwixZuuEZ0KJZ8PuigUof9RIVeP98cJXN2D8-I1BKm27UjWfXYp-kU9VFALjVEg0nxJWrJckwR7LXojzwuzgE8f7NH-C5RRwovgmOkm9/s640/metrosreleases.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So far, I only have the data for the <i>combined</i> metros through October. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">An odd thing happened in Mesa County during December, though. <a href="https://www.mesacounty.us/globalassets/public-trustee/foreclosure-statistics/mesa-county-foreclosures-and-releases-of-deeds-of-trust-2019-12.pdf">According to the Mesa County public trustee's latest data</a>, releases spiked to the highest level I've seen since I began keeping track of releases back in 2008. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Releases have generally been hovering between 600 and 800 per month in the county over the past two years. But in December, the total shot up to 1,253. That's a huge increase. For instance, in December 2018, the total number of releases was 569:</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNfSj-orpVAnprkuPEeblj3iXJRupoMxF91WayBkU8dfvI2bWqhlK-63XTupPMa0U1FCqq1VOOxIiLRyA3ucNI89jOHUBrBsK9EFfEyjBVNi3fz6P-ZFFbyB_ESZF9hsUHTo7Qf3FAZYmM/s1600/mesareleases.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="671" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNfSj-orpVAnprkuPEeblj3iXJRupoMxF91WayBkU8dfvI2bWqhlK-63XTupPMa0U1FCqq1VOOxIiLRyA3ucNI89jOHUBrBsK9EFfEyjBVNi3fz6P-ZFFbyB_ESZF9hsUHTo7Qf3FAZYmM/s640/mesareleases.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Based on what I have so far for the other metro counties, many counties are experiencing sizable increases — but this increases appears to be significantly larger than the other counties. I spoke with the Mesa County PT and confirmed this is correct data, and it is not due to an administrative backlog or an artifact of processing. It does appear to be a result of real events in the local economy. It appears many homeowners in Grand Junction had the opportunity to refinance in December, and many took it. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We'll know more at the end of January if this is a trend, or if just a quick spike that will soon return to normal. But in either case, the surge in releases suggest confidence in the local housing market on the part of lenders and investors in the secondary market. It may also suggest lenders anticipate the Fed will continue to take a dovish view on inflation and interest rates. </span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-23950433667108103862019-08-01T12:38:00.004-06:002019-08-01T12:38:36.094-06:00Colorado Gets More than Half of Its Revenue from Income Tax<a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/data-visualizations/2019/how-states-raise-their-tax-dollars">Pew breaks it down</a>. I was surprised by how little revenue is generated from severance taxes. And, of course, there is no statewide property tax thanks to TABOR.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhAFbM1uDyRHlQNtbmlOQ7puNvEXtLu1Le1iVzU1Pe8LJwgTKUGudZ2-4rhriehMKpN9HC1vbJcwdp-zxRk1ueg063Ot-IQjJYPTyRGH23AQ4_Vz9-Y2w8_LXhorq811gOk25N9hu7EX8s/s1600/How_States_Raise_Tax_Dollars_990.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1230" data-original-width="991" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhAFbM1uDyRHlQNtbmlOQ7puNvEXtLu1Le1iVzU1Pe8LJwgTKUGudZ2-4rhriehMKpN9HC1vbJcwdp-zxRk1ueg063Ot-IQjJYPTyRGH23AQ4_Vz9-Y2w8_LXhorq811gOk25N9hu7EX8s/s640/How_States_Raise_Tax_Dollars_990.png" width="514" /></a></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-57240659279965984882018-05-21T09:56:00.001-06:002018-05-21T10:11:27.565-06:00In March, 'release of deeds of trust' down 23 percent<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">A release of a deed of trust is an event that occurs when a deed of trust (often referred to as a mortgage) is paid off, either through refinance, sale, or when all payments have been completed on a home loan. It is a "positive" economic indicator in sense that areas with improving economies tend to generally also report increases in releases of deeds of trust.</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Other factors can be important as well. In cases where there is a housing shortage, but other economic indicators are robust, we might also see declining release activity. It's not always easy to know which factors are the key factors in whether or not releases are going up or down. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Since early 2017, the general trend in release activity has been downward. In March 2018, releases totaled 21,304. That's up 11 percent from February 2018, when releases totaled 19,095. Overall, however, monthly data shows that monthly release totals have fallen repeatedly since December 2016's peak of 33,943:</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGThjqEesDUy0DCrZn7GPf2iQQ1W2j7nDZX8tJeNhTbF86deYwTJRXPSnvZ0AjMzcHL9JP9bbsYIxzOeOR0uu2om54NpNxgsnHWIMsz0NB4zT0n1uhPHoVhbzuZ9467hpqLtsQNN5WPbUm/s1600/release1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" data-original-height="823" data-original-width="1310" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGThjqEesDUy0DCrZn7GPf2iQQ1W2j7nDZX8tJeNhTbF86deYwTJRXPSnvZ0AjMzcHL9JP9bbsYIxzOeOR0uu2om54NpNxgsnHWIMsz0NB4zT0n1uhPHoVhbzuZ9467hpqLtsQNN5WPbUm/s640/release1.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Looking at annual totals, we find that 2017's total was down from 302,249, dropping to 297,151. That's still above 2015's total, however, and well above 2014's totals. </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEienCjlvYoBBM8fCTC8eUkVAl57dX3ABpSN1cdbXduSqDmysEpxNtsZQCAxNJQxvQObYqo2ezChvrvaJtBYu1SWbkG8-aVSL8XwCshOK_X3dnaXg2Si7UkggVugaRTeEGL9R7vX-IJoiIki/s1600/release3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" data-original-height="683" data-original-width="1024" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEienCjlvYoBBM8fCTC8eUkVAl57dX3ABpSN1cdbXduSqDmysEpxNtsZQCAxNJQxvQObYqo2ezChvrvaJtBYu1SWbkG8-aVSL8XwCshOK_X3dnaXg2Si7UkggVugaRTeEGL9R7vX-IJoiIki/s640/release3.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The trend in year-over-year changes has also shown a decline. Over the past nine months, releases have been down every month, when compared to the same month a year earlier. In March 2018, releases were down 23 percent, compared to March of 2017 — when releases totaled 27,798. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgitBcHCtj8KBSiY7gnXiwBXWQbaOtNuh713_WAWr9XfUUY4UEr4c1EvC-0UbYiee9ymfaJB9HEt28iSOGJaaZhz-D32Oan9cHnuT5G-aY1Fr_9lCs17kp8fbREIZdTSvlBz_r46LZYWXk0/s1600/release2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" data-original-height="697" data-original-width="1018" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgitBcHCtj8KBSiY7gnXiwBXWQbaOtNuh713_WAWr9XfUUY4UEr4c1EvC-0UbYiee9ymfaJB9HEt28iSOGJaaZhz-D32Oan9cHnuT5G-aY1Fr_9lCs17kp8fbREIZdTSvlBz_r46LZYWXk0/s640/release2.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Another factor at work may be rising interest rates. Since re-finance activity is a factor in releases, and since re-fi's often slow as rates increase, we may be seeing slowing release activity as a result of significant increases in mortgage rates over the past year. Mortgage rates are now the highest they've been since 2013:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">For more on historical release activity in Colorado, <a href="https://www.ryanmcmaken.com/search/label/release%20of%20deeds%20of%20trust">see here. </a></span></div>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-48214112761939954342018-05-19T14:05:00.002-06:002018-05-19T14:05:19.119-06:00Foreclosures in Colorado's Metro Counties Remain Near Multi-Year Lows<br />
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Foreclosure activity in Colorado metropolitan counties continues to be near multi-year lows. Over the past two years, foreclosure rates have been exceptionally low compared to the previous decade. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCBZ1e-wmYt43CNZdUHuzN_eJ52g4WX9iBWc8SKV6O3K-NdA_n9HK5Rv3jNXHseyCrj6EiyBtGSvIonuBGcH_nPQkaCSmHD6VcwpOlsc4lRHuBMFqTMDLux4UUGxMfyl0c2MRBSVx4p_gT/s1600/fc1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="951" data-original-width="1328" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCBZ1e-wmYt43CNZdUHuzN_eJ52g4WX9iBWc8SKV6O3K-NdA_n9HK5Rv3jNXHseyCrj6EiyBtGSvIonuBGcH_nPQkaCSmHD6VcwpOlsc4lRHuBMFqTMDLux4UUGxMfyl0c2MRBSVx4p_gT/s640/fc1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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March 2018 foreclosure filings were down 20 percent from
March 2017, dropping from 540 to 432, year over year. <o:p></o:p></div>
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March 2018 foreclosure sales (completed foreclosures) were
down compared to March 2017 with a decrease of 33.9 percent, dropping from 177
to 117, year over year. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
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Filings rose 6.1 percent from February 2018 to March 2018, and
auction sales were up 19.4 percent over the same period. <o:p></o:p></div>
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For the first three months of 2018 as a whole, foreclosure
filings were down 11.8 percent, compared to the same period of last year.
Filings fell from 1,429 for the first three months of 2017 to 1,260 during the
same period of 2018. Foreclosure sales were also down during the same period: sales
fell 24.9 percent from 450 to 338. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Pueblo County reported the highest foreclosure rate during
March, while Boulder County reported the lowest rate. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGLXBu0Q70fM7gZkiOiBucRJPaQv2bcGpUoFvBnLXgQ7uY5srkJS-0v8XPlWlVgVKoZCDZMEkM9K5k9wRm3M2ifWe-hytArepKxfWXkBh8tSw3lxb9d3yps0UxGbWUCMgfyVxIjdX1yahD/s1600/fc2.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="348" data-original-width="358" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGLXBu0Q70fM7gZkiOiBucRJPaQv2bcGpUoFvBnLXgQ7uY5srkJS-0v8XPlWlVgVKoZCDZMEkM9K5k9wRm3M2ifWe-hytArepKxfWXkBh8tSw3lxb9d3yps0UxGbWUCMgfyVxIjdX1yahD/s400/fc2.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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Comparing the first three months of this year to the first three months of last year, both filings and sales were down: </div>
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Filings for Jan-Mar:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsewVstzpq6DlDDi3qR6d31-kj6lV2LbTGQCR1XBCDUgC8EDOD4-yzVQIS_GLxVCedLNagB6rdSZJ4vNs4Xw3G8nxM0mt688mglCru3UWaMhS_vY6SL8wIBYaxf4C8EqfanfXppHFMLxPa/s1600/fc3.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="296" data-original-width="372" height="317" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsewVstzpq6DlDDi3qR6d31-kj6lV2LbTGQCR1XBCDUgC8EDOD4-yzVQIS_GLxVCedLNagB6rdSZJ4vNs4Xw3G8nxM0mt688mglCru3UWaMhS_vY6SL8wIBYaxf4C8EqfanfXppHFMLxPa/s400/fc3.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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Sales for Jan-Mar: </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnEWhaNEItJsV7wjvy_fZO9DPApzz9xdC2RYLoAl3D2pK9FHY4OBlaRjr4Y_gXC0ZBZPQ2K6J_daFpV7WidE2qoORJJFGBC_LmJJUj0HKqfpmLHfF3yB1CeuxY4lCtMF0FnJiTVdoY84fS/s1600/fc4.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="278" data-original-width="353" height="315" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnEWhaNEItJsV7wjvy_fZO9DPApzz9xdC2RYLoAl3D2pK9FHY4OBlaRjr4Y_gXC0ZBZPQ2K6J_daFpV7WidE2qoORJJFGBC_LmJJUj0HKqfpmLHfF3yB1CeuxY4lCtMF0FnJiTVdoY84fS/s400/fc4.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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There's not a whole lot to say here except that foreclosure rates are low, and currently show no signs of heading back upward. So long as home prices continue to climb quickly upward, even those homeowners who have troubles with income can always just sell their homes in order to avoid foreclosure. </div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-27800662777555028222018-05-14T11:07:00.002-06:002018-05-14T11:07:28.042-06:00Housing: High Prices, Few New Units<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #494e54; font-family: myriad-pro, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin-bottom: 12.5px;">
(Adapted from <a href="https://mises.org/wire/housing-high-prices-few-new-units">an article published at Mises.org</a>.)</div>
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During the housing bubble that ended in 2007-8, the amount of new housing construction was remarkable. Enormous subdivisions were being constructed in metro areas across the land. Buildings of condominiums sprang up in city centers, and the ready availability of credit meant many were buying more than one house as "investments" or summer homes. New housing, it seemed, was everywhere. </div>
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At the same time, home prices were increasing, driven up in part by fact that everyone was convinced that housing prices always go up, and real estate — <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">any </em>real estate — was a rock solid investment. </div>
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When the bubble popped, there was suddenly a housing glut. From Las Vegas to Florida, we heard about buildings of condos that were more than half empty, and about suburban housing developments that became ghost towns. </div>
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On the most superficial level, the current boom might remind some of the pre-2008 bubble. Housing prices are climbing fast, and in many areas, there are bidding wars for houses that are quite ordinary. </div>
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This time, though, things are different. This time, there isn't nearly as much housing being built was during the last bubble. There may be a bubble in prices this time, but there does not appear to be a bubble in construction. </div>
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A look at housing starts in recent years shows that in raw numbers, starts are still not even close to getting back to where they were during the last boom: </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq8IoDs4UJeD0lvMi9bbQ-H6swodsQTlGV7bs8LdMdxQkscNYcZ143o61sytbMjYovv9IBleB7-wZz-uYvi99cnx0qQBl7IbT8tCIeiYTAfL28XRGQwUgyaGPqI2sqML4A4xm4piyu0Qe0/s1600/starts1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="917" data-original-width="1294" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq8IoDs4UJeD0lvMi9bbQ-H6swodsQTlGV7bs8LdMdxQkscNYcZ143o61sytbMjYovv9IBleB7-wZz-uYvi99cnx0qQBl7IbT8tCIeiYTAfL28XRGQwUgyaGPqI2sqML4A4xm4piyu0Qe0/s640/starts1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Now, some might think "it's good we not going back to bubble levels." True enough. But when we take into account growth in new households, we see that current construction trends are even weaker than the graph above suggests, and are below even more commonly-seen non-bubble levels of construction. </div>
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As both the <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Wall Street Journal </em>and <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">USA Today</em> <a data-cke-saved-href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/real-estate/2018/04/29/housing-crisis-about-more-than-lack-new-construction/34227231/" href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/real-estate/2018/04/29/housing-crisis-about-more-than-lack-new-construction/34227231/" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: #38709e; text-decoration-line: none;">noticed </a>last month, the amount of new housing construction taking place right now, as a proportion of existing households, is at historic lows. USA Today reports:</div>
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Since the real estate market crash took the wind out of the construction boom of the <span class="scayt-misspell-word" data-scayt-lang="en_US" data-scayt-word="2000s" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url("waveline.gif"); background-origin: initial; background-position: 52% 100%; background-repeat: repeat-x; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; padding-bottom: 0px;">2000s</span>, fewer homes are being built per U.S. household than at nearly any time in history.</div>
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And the Wall Street Journal <a data-cke-saved-href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/american-housing-shortage-slams-the-door-on-buyers-1521395460" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/american-housing-shortage-slams-the-door-on-buyers-1521395460" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: #38709e; text-decoration-line: none;">concludes</a>:</div>
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Home construction per household a decade after the bust remains near the lowest level in 60 years of record-keeping...What makes the slump puzzling is that by most other measures, the American economy is booming. Jobs are plentiful, wages are on the rise and the stock market is near record highs. Millennials, the largest generation since the baby boomers, are aging into home ownership.</div>
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When we look at new housing construction compared to total households going back to 1959, we find that 2009 and 2010 were years with the smallest amount of new construction in decades<img align="" alt="Unknown Object" class="cke_footnote" data-cke-real-element-type="fn" data-cke-real-node-type="1" data-cke-realelement="%3Cfn%3EUsing%20annual%2C%20not-seasonally-adjusted%20data%2C%20the%20graph%20shows%20housing%20starts%20(https%3A%2F%2Ffred.stlouisfed.org%2Fseries%2FHOUST1FNSA)%26nbsp%3B%20as%20a%20proportion%20of%20total%20households%20(https%3A%2F%2Ffred.stlouisfed.org%2Fseries%2FTTLHH)%3C%2Ffn%3E" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw==" style="background-image: url("/sites/all/modules/patched/footnotes/footnotes_wysiwyg/ckeditor_plugin//images/fn_icon2.png?t=F0RD"); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: default; height: 16px; vertical-align: middle; width: 16px;" title="Unknown Object" />:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUswUd_-w78rv6bTPGwyx-okZNrq_xBQvTnkrybCnlocETKggjSTLEvOwXTcEn4cwLsp0tDYXTPg6YcEtQD4VDHUvhaMPzBO6fVz9E-UxDwjv2R6podQzicLgVhzJ175c9IEH_Php2igia/s1600/starts_ratio.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1009" data-original-width="1419" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUswUd_-w78rv6bTPGwyx-okZNrq_xBQvTnkrybCnlocETKggjSTLEvOwXTcEn4cwLsp0tDYXTPg6YcEtQD4VDHUvhaMPzBO6fVz9E-UxDwjv2R6podQzicLgVhzJ175c9IEH_Php2igia/s640/starts_ratio.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Only the early <span class="scayt-misspell-word" data-scayt-lang="en_US" data-scayt-word="90s" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url("waveline.gif"); background-origin: initial; background-position: 52% 100%; background-repeat: repeat-x; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; padding-bottom: 0px;">90s</span> are comparable to what happened in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. </div>
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Moreover, since 2010, new construction has rebounded remarkably little. </div>
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Last year, the Kansas City Fed produced <a data-cke-saved-href="https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/mb/articles/2017/large-unmet-demand-housing" href="https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/mb/articles/2017/large-unmet-demand-housing" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: #38709e; text-decoration-line: none;">a similar analysis</a>, and the results were pretty much the same: new housing construction, taking household growth into account, now remains near a multi-decade low. </div>
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But why has this happened? The Fed Report considers a number of options, including:</div>
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One reason is that builders in many metropolitan areas are facing a shortage of qualified construction workers. In addition, smaller builders, which account for the majority of single-family development in some mid-sized metropolitan areas, are having trouble financing land purchases and construction....A third explanation is the limited availability of undeveloped land in desired locations. </div>
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Some of these factors were due to accidents of history. Many of the Mexican immigrants who worked in construction in the US in the decade following the 1994 Mexican financial crisis now are less interested in working in the US thanks to improvements in the Mexican economy. Since 2009, net migration from Mexico <a data-cke-saved-href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/11/19/more-mexicans-leaving-than-coming-to-the-u-s/" href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/11/19/more-mexicans-leaving-than-coming-to-the-u-s/" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: #38709e; text-decoration-line: none;">has fallen below zero</a>. Some of those leaving took their <span class="scayt-misspell-word" data-scayt-lang="en_US" data-scayt-word="homebuilding" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url("waveline.gif"); background-origin: initial; background-position: 52% 100%; background-repeat: repeat-x; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; padding-bottom: 0px;">homebuilding</span> skills with them. </div>
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Meanwhile, finding inexpensive financing for land acquisition and construction has been difficult as money has been siphoned off to other forms of bubble investment as central-bank produced asset inflation continues. </div>
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While real estate is certainly affected by expansive monetary policy, bubbles inflate in unpredictable ways. During the last bubble, investors grew enamored with housing, and money flowed accordingly. But nowadays, as <a data-cke-saved-href="https://mises.org/profile/brendan-brown" href="https://mises.org/profile/brendan-brown" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: #38709e; text-decoration-line: none;">Brendan Brown has often noted</a>, other investment "narratives" have directed many investors' attention elsewhere. It's no longer assumed that housing prices will always go up. Meanwhile, lumber costs, labor costs, and <a data-cke-saved-href="https://mises.org/wire/how-governments-outlaw-affordable-housing" href="https://mises.org/wire/how-governments-outlaw-affordable-housing" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: #38709e; text-decoration-line: none;">regulatory costs at the local level </a>continue to push up production costs. Since the advent of Dodd-Frank, small banks have been more often squeezed out by a handful of huge banks. As small banks disappear, so does access to financing for many smaller builders in smaller markets. </div>
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Taking all of these things together, the supply of housing is not recovering to more historically normal levels. </div>
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This doesn't mean demand for housing has gone away, of course. Population growth has not contracted like housing construction has. Vacancy <a data-cke-saved-href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRVRUSQ156N" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRVRUSQ156N" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: #38709e; text-decoration-line: none;">rates are down</a> and housing prices in both rental housing and in single-family housing continues to head upward.</div>
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And this lackluster production is all happening during a period of expansion. Presumably, it should be easy to find financing to build housing right now, and to find buyers who can pay a price that will cover expenses for <span class="scayt-misspell-word" data-scayt-lang="en_US" data-scayt-word="homebuilders" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: url("waveline.gif"); background-origin: initial; background-position: 52% 100%; background-repeat: repeat-x; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; padding-bottom: 0px;">homebuilders</span>. That doesn't seem to be happening. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-70455432689662030622018-05-10T12:14:00.004-06:002018-05-10T12:17:53.999-06:00Unemployment Rates in Colorado Near What They Were During the Late-90s BoomAccording to the most recent monthly data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate in Colorado in March 2018 fell to 2.9 percent, down from 3.3 percent in February. March's rate was up slightly from March 2017's rate of 2.8 percent.<br />
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This continues a nine-year trend, beginning in 2010, in which unemployment rates in general have been falling in Colorado, and in its metro areas.<br />
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It also continues a trend in which Colorado's unemployment rate has been lower than the national rate. Since May of 2013, Colorado has had a lower unemployment rate than the US overall in every month. In March 2018, the nationwide unemployment rate was 4.1 percent.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxpE9boYgYAFpWv4Eth7lmTna8f99JVOtRr9WITcEIK9xd1x46y_r44teDNO8XXW9UJ1oghhN4jRQ1CXs6fnI8tsdo490kb5lhBCcl2k5UWoOdtHoj8XzkC1VzxGKSGv9bFXiGGgH7wKLs/s1600/unemployment.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="775" data-original-width="1316" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxpE9boYgYAFpWv4Eth7lmTna8f99JVOtRr9WITcEIK9xd1x46y_r44teDNO8XXW9UJ1oghhN4jRQ1CXs6fnI8tsdo490kb5lhBCcl2k5UWoOdtHoj8XzkC1VzxGKSGv9bFXiGGgH7wKLs/s640/unemployment.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Through Colorado Metro areas, similar trends of declining unemployment have existed in recent years. Although rates have inched up slightly since mid-2017, unemployment rates nevertheless remain quite low.<br />
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In March, Colorado's metro areas had the following unemployment rates:<br />
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 290px;">
<colgroup><col span="2" style="width: 109pt;" width="145"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 109pt;" width="145">US</td>
<td align="right" style="width: 109pt;" width="145">4.1</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Colorado</td>
<td align="right">2.9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Ft Collins</td>
<td align="right">2.5</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Denver-Aur</td>
<td align="right">2.8</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Greeley</td>
<td align="right">2.7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">GJ</td>
<td align="right">4.0</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Colo Spr</td>
<td align="right">3.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Pueblo</td>
<td align="right">4.4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Boulder</td>
<td align="right">2.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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Graphed monthly, the metros compare like this:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkGeZ1ObX8jWjPRavruUt17Rz8qHFqwAv8GP272Cuq6W4Het8NwYGACGfgrzqzRaHny2Lpx429qKlq30lTiWFOpsSZKvOM_AUoe8KD9q2AUDldwYUy7MQ-H_rZZ_YHO_IInt43FiApG66h/s1600/unemp1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="998" data-original-width="1600" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkGeZ1ObX8jWjPRavruUt17Rz8qHFqwAv8GP272Cuq6W4Het8NwYGACGfgrzqzRaHny2Lpx429qKlq30lTiWFOpsSZKvOM_AUoe8KD9q2AUDldwYUy7MQ-H_rZZ_YHO_IInt43FiApG66h/s640/unemp1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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To add a bit more clarity, though, I've graphed the rates at 3-year intervals for each metro area, for March of each year: </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg65oaZD9y_FRKVd9NkVZxaKinpdfhiIRaPyE7EGoxEGF7zQ5OVMYllZAOTw5L_CMHfMbyjHay3eT_yaLihL31xd27SNfQ5KhLoImdacBWhj5SpgaVUgHzM8LIqELHpyqpoUa4mD4ce1266/s1600/unemp2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1310" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg65oaZD9y_FRKVd9NkVZxaKinpdfhiIRaPyE7EGoxEGF7zQ5OVMYllZAOTw5L_CMHfMbyjHay3eT_yaLihL31xd27SNfQ5KhLoImdacBWhj5SpgaVUgHzM8LIqELHpyqpoUa4mD4ce1266/s640/unemp2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div>
We find that Boulder tends to consistently have the lowest unemployment rate in the state. Grand Junction and Pueblo, on the other hand, tend to have the highest rates. Overall, though, rates statewide are near where they were in 2000 before the dot-com bust, and during the very large economic expansion of the late 1990s and early 2000s in Colorado. </div>
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<div>
There are signs that the economy in Colorado is cooling down, but at this time, there are not signs of large changes in current employment trends. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-46852002006976201452018-04-23T14:00:00.000-06:002018-05-10T13:13:58.035-06:00According to the Fed's Other Inflation Measure, Inflation's at an 11-year HighAccording to the Federal Reserve's <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/underlying-inflation-gauge">Underlying Inflation Gauge</a>, the 12-month inflation growth in March was at 3.13 percent. That's the highest rate recorded in 140 months, or nearly 12 years. The last time the UIG measure was as high was in July 2006, when it was at 3.2 percent.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikt-znBvvCJSgmWox7Rf41njJd1tX4HLDvtMKNoGFVm4K_e4MRkGYh5yptBcYSwFbdFwR8aHlNQgxFodOSxbh_o6P4EVAEgfwnbYLYeOKeRok8-Inj1yFdmwlCQaw8m8DCT-ftICIHprJd/s1600/uig+%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="1139" height="467" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikt-znBvvCJSgmWox7Rf41njJd1tX4HLDvtMKNoGFVm4K_e4MRkGYh5yptBcYSwFbdFwR8aHlNQgxFodOSxbh_o6P4EVAEgfwnbYLYeOKeRok8-Inj1yFdmwlCQaw8m8DCT-ftICIHprJd/s640/uig+%25281%2529.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://mises.org/power-market/feds-new-inflation-measure-moves-beyond-consumer-prices">The Fed began publicly reporting on new measure in December</a> of last year, and takes into account a broader measure of inflation than the more-often used CPI measure.<br />
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Not shockingly, the UIG has shown a higher rate of inflation than the CPI, most of the time in recent years. Moreover, this gap between UIG and CPI appears to be growing.<fn>The gap is simply calculated by substracting the CPI YOY growth rate from UIG YOY growth rate. A negative value means the CPI was higher than the UIG in that period. </fn><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCuuHkQwzDbDPBvD55Zaq4EDBvbFNlHlabhyphenhyphenESTrqslGL5RYnQFcvNLEIfD0qdbHMuzIfRFQeBwetezxMtz4eEMNytna_DmCpX2S0tk7bkb5O4v5PiCvH9a9UcKK7c0A2NsTsFVnIYX6Jj/s1600/gap1+%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="713" data-original-width="1002" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCuuHkQwzDbDPBvD55Zaq4EDBvbFNlHlabhyphenhyphenESTrqslGL5RYnQFcvNLEIfD0qdbHMuzIfRFQeBwetezxMtz4eEMNytna_DmCpX2S0tk7bkb5O4v5PiCvH9a9UcKK7c0A2NsTsFVnIYX6Jj/s640/gap1+%25281%2529.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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In March, while the UIG was 3.13 percent, the CPI growth rate was 2.4 percent. This was a 13-month high for the CPI.<br />
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The use of consumer prices only in the CPI has long been a problem, in that the cost of living and planning for the future does not involve only the basket of goods used in the CPI calculations. A wide variety of assets affect the American economy as well.<br />
As explained by the New York Fed's<a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/epr/2017/epr_2017_underlying_inflation_rich.pdf?la=en"> summary</a> of the UIG measure:<br />
<blockquote>
We use data from the following two broad categories: (1) consumer, producer, and import prices for goods and services and (2) nonprice variables such as labor market measures, money aggregates, producer surveys, and financial variables (short- and long-term government interest rates, corporate and high-yield bonds, consumer credit volumes and real estate loans, stocks, and commodity prices).</blockquote>
But don't expect the Fed to abandon its fondness for the CPI and the "2-percent inflation" goal any time soon. Today, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, reiterated that the Fed <a href="https://www.nasdaq.com/article/feds-evans-says-inflation-should-average-2-percent-20180420-00711">is holding to its 2-percent inflation goal</a> - and they're not talking about using the UIG measure.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-44322514427194759512018-02-12T15:38:00.001-07:002018-02-12T15:38:11.565-07:00Areas Where Colorado's Economy Has Diversified<a href="http://www.lavozcolorado.com/detail.php?id=9526"><i>La Voz</i> last month outlined</a> some of the ways Colorado's economy has diversified in recent decades. Noting that the the state's historical dependence on natural resource extraction has made the local economy prone to booms and busts, <i>La Voz </i>looks at a few areas where the state has moved away from having a limited economy:<br />
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Outdoor Recreation<br />
Tourism<br />
Cannabis<br />
Renewable Energy<br />
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To be sure, the first three on the list are connected to tourism overall, although there's nothing wrong with people traveling to Colorado — especially if the reasons are far more diverse than just "skiing."<br />
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<i>La Voz</i> sums it up:<br />
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Colorado’s dependence on the extraction industries for its economic well-being has put long-time residents through a historical roller coaster ride of boom and bust cycles. Those days may finally be behind the state with low unemployment rates, some of the fastest growing companies in the country and a diversified set of industries drawn to the state. Now the state’s largest employers are from the Aviation, Healthcare, Telecommunications and Financial Services industries. The new mix of companies has provided sustained growth and an economic engine that keeps Colorado near the top of the class.</blockquote>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-32485473712006354752018-02-12T15:30:00.002-07:002018-02-12T15:32:37.274-07:00New Mexico Never Really Recovered from the Great RecessionThe <i>Santa Fe New Mexican</i> recently <a href="http://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/new-mexico-s-lost-decade-state-mired-in-economic-problems/article_88fb7f77-15a2-5f34-b8fc-9d3a79c46630.html">posted an informative article </a>on the New Mexico economy, which has never really gotten back to where it was before the Great Recession of 2008-2009 — at least not in terms of employment.
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
When it comes to New Mexico’s economy, 2006 seems like a lifetime ago.<br />
Job growth that year was its fastest in more than a decade. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.6 percent. The price of oil was at record levels. State government was awash with cash. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA7P8u9wtYdV8eRuRxjzv7bQEI68481Bw5gYYHFMcPdPozS0c_VPOmb5c6SVEc7-GyqQyiByNHjEuVYgX1Ka_InQQ1H9MFpbagXXmvyfcn3jmijzgtuhs70tEEweAnWdWzHXohwYEF7TCt/s1600/nm_unemployment.png"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="816" data-original-width="1179" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA7P8u9wtYdV8eRuRxjzv7bQEI68481Bw5gYYHFMcPdPozS0c_VPOmb5c6SVEc7-GyqQyiByNHjEuVYgX1Ka_InQQ1H9MFpbagXXmvyfcn3jmijzgtuhs70tEEweAnWdWzHXohwYEF7TCt/s640/nm_unemployment.png" width="640" /></a> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA7P8u9wtYdV8eRuRxjzv7bQEI68481Bw5gYYHFMcPdPozS0c_VPOmb5c6SVEc7-GyqQyiByNHjEuVYgX1Ka_InQQ1H9MFpbagXXmvyfcn3jmijzgtuhs70tEEweAnWdWzHXohwYEF7TCt/s1600/nm_unemployment.png"></a>Then, with stunning speed, came the Great Recession in December 2007, and New Mexico still hasn’t recovered. In a state where the economy is based in large part on government dollars, it’s government numbers that paint the picture. The state’s jobless rate was 6 percent in December 2017, according to preliminary estimates. Alaska is the only state doing worse.<br />
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The nation’s rate was 4.1 percent, a 17-year low. Of New Mexico’s 33 counties, all but tiny Mora County have higher unemployment rates than they did before the recession. The state hasn’t yet gotten back the more than 50,000 jobs it lost during the recession, making New Mexico one of only a few states that have yet to recover their jobs.
</blockquote>
<div class="tncms-region hidden-print" id="tncms-region-article_instory_top" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333;">
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<a href="http://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/new-mexico-s-lost-decade-state-mired-in-economic-problems/article_88fb7f77-15a2-5f34-b8fc-9d3a79c46630.html"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Read the full article. </span></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-83533898560845208172017-11-25T17:26:00.001-07:002017-11-25T17:31:46.015-07:00Foreclosure Sales Hit All-Time Low in September Foreclosure sales in Colorado's metropolitan counties fell to a total of 95 in September, coming in at the lowest total ever recorded since this survey was begun in 2007. During the same period, there were 415 foreclosure filings.<br />
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This continues a multi-year trend of declining foreclosure activity, as we can see in the graph. September's foreclosure sales total was the lowest ever recorded with the next smallest being June's total of 106.<br />
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Foreclosure filings, meanwhile, we up slightly from all-time high's but remained near the lowest levels we've seen in the last decade. An all-time low was reached in July of this year when foreclosure filings totals dropped to 394.<br />
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These figures are totals for Colorado's 11 most-populous counties, plus Broomfield County. Foreclosure filings are the event that begins the foreclosure process, and foreclosure sales occur at the end of the process when properties are sold at auction, often going to the lender.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih6trLVY2dnG97XYgipvKbIRy2fXoqDBkxBzpTJFM0p5p7LQqk96LVowSCx8rrydmWLgaIO5iujie6PqlueF6UzJ4Fx1rFyPxBYgbAgZF-TZO_1xk7s1u5fkcV3pugPXA0u06k3gajAgSY/s1600/monthly1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="951" data-original-width="1328" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih6trLVY2dnG97XYgipvKbIRy2fXoqDBkxBzpTJFM0p5p7LQqk96LVowSCx8rrydmWLgaIO5iujie6PqlueF6UzJ4Fx1rFyPxBYgbAgZF-TZO_1xk7s1u5fkcV3pugPXA0u06k3gajAgSY/s640/monthly1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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In the second graph, we see year-over-year changes in total foreclosure filings and sales. In September 2017, filings were down slightly from September 2016, dropping by 5.25 percent. Foreclosure sales dropped by much more, falling 38.8 percent year over year. As we can see in the graph, both filings and sales have been dropping each month for the past 10 months, and the overall trend for both filings and sales has clearly been downward since 2012.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQbT-02Nv425kzu1fK4tYPT_CXDlrvMJpFinbSccKemmbpadbYyulhZTNUmo70u3fNWun60RDTxNG8KyKPD5BBFHZLO7M_DGlNbQdtke5BlY0gJFVTRgT1Q4yPH5p0av03wcuu4XOHkZbc/s1600/monthly2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="819" data-original-width="1122" height="466" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQbT-02Nv425kzu1fK4tYPT_CXDlrvMJpFinbSccKemmbpadbYyulhZTNUmo70u3fNWun60RDTxNG8KyKPD5BBFHZLO7M_DGlNbQdtke5BlY0gJFVTRgT1Q4yPH5p0av03wcuu4XOHkZbc/s640/monthly2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Many counties differ in their foreclosure trends, and the number of foreclosure compared to the overall number of households can vary considerably.<br />
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If we look at foreclosure filings in each county on a per household basis, we find that Pueblo County has the fewest households per foreclosure — only 394 households per foreclosure — while Larimer County has the most — 2,771 households per foreclosure. Note that a larger number means fewer foreclosures in relation to population size. In other words, the larger the number of households per foreclosure, the lower the "foreclosure rate."<br />
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Also note that the counties with the lowest foreclosure rate tend to be higher-income counties such as Boulder and Douglas counties. Pueblo, Mesa, and Adams counties, on the other hand — which have higher foreclosure rates — have lower overall income levels.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFh1QIsYCtb5-t5Gq095RdCq_4Xe1la8XGkhJZpNTU5z43G9DUSDfmw6YZEzBDBZIuhbD3MQqFDdzJoikei7QW10KwFSXgQmEZUfq6iRW-PyIHy4_aV7ih_vJmJWLMmqjRiBNEgcqxqQlU/s1600/rates.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="294" data-original-width="333" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFh1QIsYCtb5-t5Gq095RdCq_4Xe1la8XGkhJZpNTU5z43G9DUSDfmw6YZEzBDBZIuhbD3MQqFDdzJoikei7QW10KwFSXgQmEZUfq6iRW-PyIHy4_aV7ih_vJmJWLMmqjRiBNEgcqxqQlU/s400/rates.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
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A similar trend holds when we make the same comparisons using foreclosure sales. Pueblo has the fewest households per foreclosure sale (2,723) while Broomfield County reported no foreclosure sales at all.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjTToifF46peIjwcT-mt__zdbWFbWJTrXB0GMLYUvyEjKWrOAOizp6FCtk7kvj33SbpipFAvwP6CcJlTFDEfSirE4akv_6s1e5Tgo1Ks9dq-kMhgKDUB5y1DM-kaDGHC7mVXB7aRgot7Oe/s1600/filings.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="289" data-original-width="333" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjTToifF46peIjwcT-mt__zdbWFbWJTrXB0GMLYUvyEjKWrOAOizp6FCtk7kvj33SbpipFAvwP6CcJlTFDEfSirE4akv_6s1e5Tgo1Ks9dq-kMhgKDUB5y1DM-kaDGHC7mVXB7aRgot7Oe/s400/filings.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
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Some counties are certainly more foreclosure-free than others. But, even those counties that have some of the highest foreclosure rates, relatively speaking, are still way down in their foreclosure totals from what we were seeing back in 2009 and 2010. Foreclosure activity continues to be at very low levels across all metro areas for now.<br />
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(This data is collected from the Public Trustee in each county.)Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-35319218864821783172017-11-17T09:35:00.002-07:002017-11-17T09:42:46.773-07:00Colorado Homicide Rate Up in 2016According <a href="https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/topic-pages/violent-crime">to the FBI's annual crime report, released in September</a>, Colorado's homicide rate increased to 3.7 per 100,000 in 2016. That's up from 2015's rate of 3.2 per 100,000, and from the 50-year low of 2.6 recorded in 2010.<br />
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2016's rate was a 12-year high, but still remained well below the homicide rates that were common during the 1970s and 1980s:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo9ZS7ez458RT2xKSXZIH9uWqwSNcHtNXOb93VKrRNWG9eNWdNTQ6fmN3Wo0Ay5-0DeO0BTi8TsH8HXDDnr_BvwiyViUqqtMvYFc83jihwvv_lOzNoptxBhxmzfJ9kzzCZ6faZANmZ331r/s1600/cide1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="910" data-original-width="1288" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo9ZS7ez458RT2xKSXZIH9uWqwSNcHtNXOb93VKrRNWG9eNWdNTQ6fmN3Wo0Ay5-0DeO0BTi8TsH8HXDDnr_BvwiyViUqqtMvYFc83jihwvv_lOzNoptxBhxmzfJ9kzzCZ6faZANmZ331r/s640/cide1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Compared to the nationwide homicide rate, the Colorado rate has been lower every year since 1963. The nationwide homicide rate in 2016 was 5.2 per 100,000.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkPYasIsM-zz7CiaZUq-9LGZn-TJxOkrd3utpe8607ZBXKoWM-ldvnAoiwW6IP63Dorqs3FEZukq2Y2HEkZI2Q4gHni2vr-q_BL_HYvE2ivkJSYUVViUr9JwhGvrEpq5RGMBkA7HK-eXJn/s1600/cide2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="909" data-original-width="1280" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkPYasIsM-zz7CiaZUq-9LGZn-TJxOkrd3utpe8607ZBXKoWM-ldvnAoiwW6IP63Dorqs3FEZukq2Y2HEkZI2Q4gHni2vr-q_BL_HYvE2ivkJSYUVViUr9JwhGvrEpq5RGMBkA7HK-eXJn/s640/cide2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Since the 1990s, the US homicide rate has been nearly cut in half, and the US rate hit a 52-year low in 2014 when it fell to 4.4 per 100,000.<br />
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Compared to other US states and Canadian provinces, Colorado's homicide rate places it as one of the lowest-homicide rates in in the US, and puts it on a par with central-Canadian provinces like Alberta and Manitoba:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQud7uArSZ1hZNlEc5qnL7NjRqq7B5TA4RBHkp9vKPuP0el1PcQHinw5-URsmZZpwKQt81vbbf63SpbHLfIpxT1VbLd2bNiaEEkGr4a7rHUZZliGYrb6OhO9FOOT2tU0F3Nu31EFnz5TGh/s1600/rates2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1497" data-original-width="1109" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQud7uArSZ1hZNlEc5qnL7NjRqq7B5TA4RBHkp9vKPuP0el1PcQHinw5-URsmZZpwKQt81vbbf63SpbHLfIpxT1VbLd2bNiaEEkGr4a7rHUZZliGYrb6OhO9FOOT2tU0F3Nu31EFnz5TGh/s640/rates2.jpg" width="474" /></a></div>
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As a map: </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-Wmt5lmP0_LxQ9gQxmXL9UFG-sTMa7oEjiGi226whYggNuaKs1dpk6Up7gCn7cSliPFvq6pdeNsvyDEmlmGLYkzieuHCMauZD42yfhy-A4DZ3eju7B6DYzqQ2Nkh0u8WFU4Y9K-4aHMnr/s1600/homicde_canada_map_2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="673" data-original-width="1115" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-Wmt5lmP0_LxQ9gQxmXL9UFG-sTMa7oEjiGi226whYggNuaKs1dpk6Up7gCn7cSliPFvq6pdeNsvyDEmlmGLYkzieuHCMauZD42yfhy-A4DZ3eju7B6DYzqQ2Nkh0u8WFU4Y9K-4aHMnr/s640/homicde_canada_map_2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Within the state of Colorado, metro areas can differ significantly. Over the past decade, the metro area with the highest homicide rate has in most years been Pueblo (no Pueblo data is available for 2008). In 2016, Colorado metro areas reported the following homicide rates, per 100,000:<br />
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Pueblo: 6.7<br />
Grand Junction: 6<br />
Colorado Springs: 4.5<br />
Denver: 4.3<br />
Fort Collins: 2.6<br />
Greeley: 1.4<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_l75eGrqafztRes8PgzW_TnKIvy8Z06Cjc0lwDnhjZ-qOKogjP8wcBFbuwYOGR-3pgQIO4N_aKbl_vuIaeRYgJO1jPDxI6mYzoC2Sgn0RkeMnYXzR-48UU24d4FBcrlyIrTwyEXc9WIME/s1600/cide4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="811" data-original-width="1202" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_l75eGrqafztRes8PgzW_TnKIvy8Z06Cjc0lwDnhjZ-qOKogjP8wcBFbuwYOGR-3pgQIO4N_aKbl_vuIaeRYgJO1jPDxI6mYzoC2Sgn0RkeMnYXzR-48UU24d4FBcrlyIrTwyEXc9WIME/s640/cide4.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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By this measure, Fort Collins and Greeley are among the safest places in the world. Grand Junction's homicide rate spiked in 2016, but with such a small overall population, it's impossible to say if this change reflects any real trend in the region. </div>
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These numbers, however, are by full metro areas. If we look within a single metro area, such as the Denver Metro Area, we'll find significant differences there as well. For example, the City and County of Denver is the primary driver of homicide rates in the area. In 2016, there were 57 homicides in the City and County of Denver, and 22 in the City of Aurora. In the metro area as a whole, however, there were 124 homicides total. Thus, Denver and Aurora alone accounted for nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of all homicides in the metro area. This is in spite of the fact that those two cities make up only 37 percent of the total population of the metro area. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-36596356882965210792017-11-16T08:11:00.002-07:002017-11-16T09:17:47.474-07:00Case-Shiller: Denver home prices growth falls to 35-month low According to the <a href="http://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-corelogic-case-shiller">latest Case-Shiller report</a>, home prices have been moderating throughout the year, with August's report showing a 7.2 increase over August of 2016. This was the smallest rate of increase found in 35 months, or since October of 2014.<br />
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August's growth rate is down from the November 2015 peak of 10.9 percent.<br />
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Meanwhile, home price growth in the 20-city index has been largely flat, but slightly growing over the past year — although overall growth is below that found in Denver metro. In august, the 20-city index grow rate was 5.9 percent, which is a six-month high.<br />
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While overall growth is outpacing the 20-city sample, we can also see that Denver's index value is now well above where it was during the last peak home-price period of 2006.<br />
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The index for metro Denver had peaked at 140 back in August 2006. But now, the index value is 201, up 43 percent from 2006.<br />
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The 20-city index, meanwhile, is not even back to its former peak, and is now still down 1.7 percent from where it peaked during August of 2006.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6aLkURPTZFfK_Pu7bIwDK_fNp_y5Cqfn-r3gez2Zm-Kc7X45m7BoEJ4b5Yv1jroktVYLklkU3dBNaijfHgm4ZX744gRcWE6FS6YzYi99zIHtzunogR-f7sFTKDqpQDuedUQhBaA1A-9jO/s1600/cs3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="965" data-original-width="1261" height="488" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6aLkURPTZFfK_Pu7bIwDK_fNp_y5Cqfn-r3gez2Zm-Kc7X45m7BoEJ4b5Yv1jroktVYLklkU3dBNaijfHgm4ZX744gRcWE6FS6YzYi99zIHtzunogR-f7sFTKDqpQDuedUQhBaA1A-9jO/s640/cs3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Clearly, home price growth in Denver metro is strong, even when compared to a variety of other large cities throughout the US. This is partly fueled by job growth in general, and specifically by job growth in the energy sector.<br />
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Moderation in price growth, however, also reflects a similar moderation in job growth that metro Denver is now experiencing.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-75921929761363563872017-11-14T18:03:00.000-07:002017-11-14T18:09:26.032-07:00Releases of deeds of trust in metros fall to 32-month low<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">A deed of trust is "released" when a home loan is paid off. This event is recorded by the public trustee in each county in Colorado.</span><br />
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Trends in public trustees tell us about how much activity there is in terms of home loan refinances and home sales. In many ways, activity in releases of deeds of trust are an indicator of demand for real estate purchases in Colorado, and historically, we have seen more release activity during times of economic boom. </div>
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<b>Activity Through September of This Yea</b>r </div>
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In September 2017, we found that releases had fallen to a 32-month low in the 11 largest counties in Colorado, plus Broomfield County. These counties include more than 90 percent of the population of Colorado. </div>
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In September, releases totaled 20,730. That's the lowest total since February 2015 when releases totaled 18,826. September 2017's total up down from the same month a year earlier, falling 26.6 percent from September 2016's total of 28,252.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJQ73vjS-vtmHEAxba-TkYPyDSDKU7TjIfs_xHoqhtOSIyvWvQFjLpsA1ek3ycZyAb9Mc-YEgVROuyYvoU0t-GwJX_B42sopGOYq_2y2NaEtYuDZkhvBiLF67N9bOeiRBLpAWFSDgGg4jp/s1600/monthlreleases.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="823" data-original-width="1310" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJQ73vjS-vtmHEAxba-TkYPyDSDKU7TjIfs_xHoqhtOSIyvWvQFjLpsA1ek3ycZyAb9Mc-YEgVROuyYvoU0t-GwJX_B42sopGOYq_2y2NaEtYuDZkhvBiLF67N9bOeiRBLpAWFSDgGg4jp/s640/monthlreleases.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Looking at counties, individually, we find that year-over-year, the counties with the largest drops were Douglas, Broomfield, and Denver counties. There were no counties that reported increases during this period. </div>
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Although September's total is clearly down significantly from December 2016's peak, overall activity continues to be generally robust as demand for housing and homes for purchase remains strong. Although the Federal reserve acted to allow the Federal Funds rate to rise slightly over the past two years, mortgage rates spikes in late 2016, but fell throughout much of 2017. Without a sustained increase in mortgage rates, we're likely to continue to see relatively strong numbers for releases of deeds of trust. At least, this will be the case until there is a general worsening of the labor market and economy overall. </div>
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So, for now, release activity is moderating, but compared to most years since 2008, activity is relatively strong. This reflects ongoing interest in real estate purchases and in refi activity in Colorado. </div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-56166818318837901852017-11-10T13:15:00.000-07:002017-11-10T13:29:10.133-07:00Suicides drop in Summit County — Is Altitude a Factor in Suicide Rates?<span style="font-family: inherit;">Summit Daily<a href="http://www.summitdaily.com/news/local/summit-county-suicide-rate-approaching-10-year-low-following-major-push-by-advocacy-groups/"> reports</a> that suicides in the mountain county are on the decline this year after a spike upward last year:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Four people have died of suicide this year in Summit County, a sobering statistic but still a welcome improvement from the double-digit numbers that have marked past years. If the trend continues, 2017 could have the lowest number of suicide deaths in a decade.</span><span style="font-family: inherit;">The major reduction comes on the heels of a concerted push by advocacy groups and local officials to combat mental illness and break down barriers to care. And while it's difficult to draw a causal link with such a small sample size, the numbers indicate Summit is moving in the right direction.</span><span style="background-color: transparent;"> </span></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">"I would say one suicide is too many, but any reduction in the number feels like a win," assistant Summit County manager and former Summit Community Care Clinic CEO Sarah Vaine said.</span><span style="background-color: transparent;"> </span></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">There were 13 suicide deaths in 2016, the highest number on record, eight in 2015 and 10 in 2014. The most recent year with fewer than four deaths was 2007, according to coroner's office statistics.</span></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">This is good news to be sure, although when dealing with such a small population, huge swings can occur in events like suicides, without it indicating any sort of established trend. It may be that last year was the anomaly, and that there was never any growing trend of suicides to begin with. We'll need more time to know. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4Fzm6q7uxXot7E55AYGOS1_UxrmFhwU-bKY8DqloN51dV_GW5elC6mObHm0C-GUszvVEjtxc66saCibuSynF6S6ZXEhkmOjxsO6rPE5aEr-gGrYa1smMsTtHcXQ0LdDsK0QuwZuKJHE-G/s1600/SuicideRate-SDN-111017.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="620" data-original-width="591" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4Fzm6q7uxXot7E55AYGOS1_UxrmFhwU-bKY8DqloN51dV_GW5elC6mObHm0C-GUszvVEjtxc66saCibuSynF6S6ZXEhkmOjxsO6rPE5aEr-gGrYa1smMsTtHcXQ0LdDsK0QuwZuKJHE-G/s400/SuicideRate-SDN-111017.jpg" width="381" /></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Given that Summit County is a high-altitude county, this discussion is an interesting reminder that high altitude has been connected to suicides in at least one study. Writing in the journal <i>High Altitude Medicine and Biology</i> in 2011, Barry Brenner, David Cheng, Sunday Clark, and Carlos A. Camargo, Jr. concluded there really is a correlation: </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Recent preliminary studies have reported a positive correlation between mean altitude and the suicide rate of the 48 contiguous U.S.states. Because intrastate altitude may have large variation, we examined all 2584 U.S. counties to evaluate whether an independent relationship between altitude and suicide exists. We hypothesized that counties at higher elevation would have higher suicide rates. This retrospective study examines 20 yr of county-specific mortality data from 1979 to 1998...</span> </blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Controlling for percent of age >50 yr, percent male, percent white, median household income, and population density of each county, the higher-altitude counties had significantly higher suicide rates than the lower-altitude counties. Similar findings were observed for both firearm-related suicides (59% of suicides) and nonfirearm-related suicides. We conclude that altitude may be a novel risk factor for suicide in the contiguous United States.</span></blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">In recent numbers for the state of Colorado overall (<a href="https://www.coloradohealthinstitute.org/research/suicides-colorado-reach-all-time-high">February 2017</a>), Denver showed up with the lowest suicide rate among counties at 13.9, while mountain counties had some of the highest rates, including <span style="color: #414042;">Gilpin (37.8), Clear Creek (37.8), Park (37.8) and Teller (37.8) counties. Among large counties, Pueblo county had the highest rate at 28.5. (All rates are total suicides per 100,000 people.)</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6CmVFji6WCmF8TMV4tRStHwo9eu-Xnjoe8xwwRgoL_95iE3YG4wP7kNuQUvj744WDhf6aAYuT_1SyF0hpRqCdGhtQO47IPr7mQ5-DOWHu3tU1GP87QHatVZkx-hvcvO_GLR84-PaqBxgD/s1600/suicide+region.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="437" data-original-width="575" height="303" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6CmVFji6WCmF8TMV4tRStHwo9eu-Xnjoe8xwwRgoL_95iE3YG4wP7kNuQUvj744WDhf6aAYuT_1SyF0hpRqCdGhtQO47IPr7mQ5-DOWHu3tU1GP87QHatVZkx-hvcvO_GLR84-PaqBxgD/s400/suicide+region.PNG" width="400" /></a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #414042;">Unfortunately, since these are such small counties, population-wise, the statewide report notes "</span><span style="color: #414042;">there is no significant statistical difference between the rate for this region and all other regions with the exception of Denver County."</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #414042;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Even if there is a clear correlation here, the implications for public policy are few, except that local healthcare workers ought to be aware of risk factors. The possible correlation here is interesting, nonetheless, and possibly of use when other alleged causes of suicide are put forward. </span></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-51831973847196589142017-11-02T18:07:00.002-06:002017-11-02T18:19:48.293-06:00Releases of deeds of trust in Colorado metros fall to 12-month low in June A deed of trust is "released" when a home loan is paid off. This event is recorded by the public trustee in each county in Colorado.<br />
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Trends in public trustees tell us about how much activity there is in terms of home loan refinances and home sales. In many ways, activity in releases of deeds of trust are an indicator of demand for real estate purchases in Colorado, and historically, we have seen more release activity during times of economic boom. </div>
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<b>Activity Through June of This Yea</b>r </div>
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In June 2017, we found that releases had fallen to a 12-month low in the 11 largest counties in Colorado, plus Broomfield County. These counties include more than 90 percent of the population of Colorado. </div>
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In June, releases totaled 23,422. That's the lowest total since June 2016 when releases totaled 23,265. June 2017's total up down slightly from the same month a year earlier, rising 0.7 percent from June 2016's total of 23,265.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikZVsbMqLNPhhXsCoWRuVfVf-3odRQIXTUnP41kkOnFVSr99o8FY1FUM2HjXoQqnGqc_dX64JaRMHpLWY-bTfGjM9wPxqzCzBIOvsoQD3aiGDwwV0IGViK5lSmDWBQQADXO6X6VS9kjlSj/s1600/releases5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="823" data-original-width="1310" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikZVsbMqLNPhhXsCoWRuVfVf-3odRQIXTUnP41kkOnFVSr99o8FY1FUM2HjXoQqnGqc_dX64JaRMHpLWY-bTfGjM9wPxqzCzBIOvsoQD3aiGDwwV0IGViK5lSmDWBQQADXO6X6VS9kjlSj/s640/releases5.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Looking at counties, individually, we find that year-over-year, the counties with the largest drops were Adams, Broomfield, and Boulder counties. The largest increases were found in Weld and Denver counties. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinXzWypri_3KADxJsgagHy_Y6BYTWb_2lkzfrxy9C9kpPI8lBze4dMdksnHUxUbpspoNOzio0os-OJH3cHx4o2yJf2HIv0PLkwAcqWj-TXfrrUgF5pry28rR_oQf2ZgGfpWPyLPWfd4rsS/s1600/releases3.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="233" data-original-width="372" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinXzWypri_3KADxJsgagHy_Y6BYTWb_2lkzfrxy9C9kpPI8lBze4dMdksnHUxUbpspoNOzio0os-OJH3cHx4o2yJf2HIv0PLkwAcqWj-TXfrrUgF5pry28rR_oQf2ZgGfpWPyLPWfd4rsS/s400/releases3.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
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Although June's total is clearly down significantly from December 2016's peak, overall activity continues to be generally robust as demand for housing and homes for purchase remains strong. Thanks to low interest rates and rising home prices, it remains relatively easy to obtain refinances for current mortgages, and home continue to sell quickly, with the possible exception of high-end homes. </div>
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All of these factors continue to put upward pressure on release activity. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-16026184995309862362017-03-02T21:00:00.005-07:002017-03-02T21:16:44.888-07:00Housing permits in Metro Denver up 18 percent in 2016 Housing permits in the Denver metro area increased 18 percent from 2015 to 2016, rising from 1,462 to 1,732 permits. As we can see in the first graph, this brings total permit activity back to levels similar to those found in 2004 and 2005, and well above what we saw during the recessionary period of 2008 and 2009:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXipOYBZkbky11TkPUd2q2M6-PcElv7rYv9o7SIgjBGaOFPVfsE8IR0vK0DNRPtHpJ8hxQfv_RgctwdupGOZD3TRFJ5LGm2kUHxcXnJ8G2uhoZII_FgnUQy51UWDlOkhTbgwZjF3c211D4/s1600/permits.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXipOYBZkbky11TkPUd2q2M6-PcElv7rYv9o7SIgjBGaOFPVfsE8IR0vK0DNRPtHpJ8hxQfv_RgctwdupGOZD3TRFJ5LGm2kUHxcXnJ8G2uhoZII_FgnUQy51UWDlOkhTbgwZjF3c211D4/s640/permits.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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As demand for both apartments and for-sale housing grew after 2009, we saw gradual increases in permit activity, and the permit total is now at a 14-year high. Permit totals have not been this high since 2002 when they reached 1,770. </div>
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The composition of the permit total is very different today from what it was prior to 2007, however. As we see in the next graph, prior to 2007, the total number of single-family permits greatly outnumbered the number of multifamily permits. Since 2011, single-family and multifamily permits have been rather similar, with multifamily permits even exceeding single-family permits in 2012 and 2013. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5sL56CfNnZbaf03bjnUfFNUQlvETyRSnAEAEnsdwCIY41w8O-6ANU_cfklOO_9IrSePMRwsMNtr7HSooG0QVaP7KOPoeYmgmiEKp3-gQ86y5OVoEgoW3xQMv_Qy0_X9EHga4p8yuy1zqR/s1600/permittypes.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5sL56CfNnZbaf03bjnUfFNUQlvETyRSnAEAEnsdwCIY41w8O-6ANU_cfklOO_9IrSePMRwsMNtr7HSooG0QVaP7KOPoeYmgmiEKp3-gQ86y5OVoEgoW3xQMv_Qy0_X9EHga4p8yuy1zqR/s640/permittypes.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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We can contrast this to the situation before 2007 when the very large numbers of new single-family permits from 1998 to 2005 were a factor in what became sizable declines in home prices from 2008 to 2010 that only made a quick turnaround on the back of massive federal monetary and fiscal stimulus in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, the single-family market has remained well below its former peaks even though population growth continues as a sizable rate in Colorado. </div>
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Much of this single-family activity has now been replaced by multifamily production. In fact, over the past five years, nearly half of new permits have been for multifamily housing, which is highly unusual:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid9s7PQud-eC1PHdbHnOEWGn3vEjS8Tqhy4OopyPKObuyLkK3fVzn8SAoar7bZ_OUSOInun_QdGbFPHgi5RSXzTfddMIAdlHIJZ3ii0vmtt9WUqPSZjJANaPj2hNtIBcYvHApr0WdYaMHf/s1600/percentagepermit.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid9s7PQud-eC1PHdbHnOEWGn3vEjS8Tqhy4OopyPKObuyLkK3fVzn8SAoar7bZ_OUSOInun_QdGbFPHgi5RSXzTfddMIAdlHIJZ3ii0vmtt9WUqPSZjJANaPj2hNtIBcYvHApr0WdYaMHf/s640/percentagepermit.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Moreover, we see this show up in the homeownership numbers in Colorado. due in part to the<a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/print-edition/2014/03/07/cover-story-will-metro-denvers.html"> boom in apartment building</a> that has taken place since 2012, homeownership has gone into decline over the past decade. </div>
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While homebuilders were quickly adding new supply, we saw the homeownership rate sit as historic highs above 70 percent. . </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBOH7auq71UqMBTn7C6PX0CJNIW7CnhTdpgNT8k_hWghHJOi-tDipvn8VagUKUDP7zs9DkFnzB2y6ALqVoAiKqK941X1F1zcD1v-UbIgopE9tOM4Q9sYbwoz7zTQQetln4xUPA6WNX6QwZ/s1600/colo_homeownrate+%25281%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="486" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBOH7auq71UqMBTn7C6PX0CJNIW7CnhTdpgNT8k_hWghHJOi-tDipvn8VagUKUDP7zs9DkFnzB2y6ALqVoAiKqK941X1F1zcD1v-UbIgopE9tOM4Q9sYbwoz7zTQQetln4xUPA6WNX6QwZ/s640/colo_homeownrate+%25281%2529.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Now, the housing focus has shifted more in the direction of multifamily, but overall permitting has rebounded to 80 percent of where it was at the 2001 peak. Nevertheless, continuing growth in both home prices and rents suggests that there is still room for more housing production. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-7744189710645779132017-03-02T17:41:00.002-07:002017-03-02T17:41:30.155-07:00Foreclosures in Colorado's metro counties fell 6.9 percent from 2015 to 2016. Foreclosure activity continued to fall in 2016 in Colorado's 12 metropolitan counties. In Colorado's 11 most populous counties plus Broomfield County, new foreclosure filings were down 6.9 percent while foreclosure sales at auction — the point at which the foreclosing property is auctioned off to the bank or other buyer — were down 26.5 percent. The first chart shows all counties measured, and the year over year change from 2015 to 2016:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0NS1oeI3wNLaoG0MsIjL362mP8APtNFMn9EI0477WU1TAJ8JL9-b-QeepairJeUYDv9-Qft5TuuIEbLWya25Ac_hLSgQ3oNknuuxKOg-FbH2caLrhRJk6WtxZANrpGaPMORmdFAkiiQ9Q/s1600/yearend.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0NS1oeI3wNLaoG0MsIjL362mP8APtNFMn9EI0477WU1TAJ8JL9-b-QeepairJeUYDv9-Qft5TuuIEbLWya25Ac_hLSgQ3oNknuuxKOg-FbH2caLrhRJk6WtxZANrpGaPMORmdFAkiiQ9Q/s640/yearend.JPG" width="504" /></a></div>
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Except for Mesa and Denver counties, foreclosure filings fell in all counties. And, when it came to foreclosure sales at auction — the final and most serious phase of foreclosure — only Mesa county reported an increase from 2015 to 2016.<br />
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Annual foreclosure totals in these counties have fallen off significantly in recent years:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieH1Ysk6TrIEu127WlJM_KfgPeIedI7vNTRk5rJvF6Da4dMAJXFVm6zvBgRf2yrhLP-6mPnA5-m40sZO196wz_tkFfXpOA7bctNrhgVlnHJsb4VMBhyqajda2P8qSemnTXRCzyDTJAqqkK/s1600/annualFC.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="482" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieH1Ysk6TrIEu127WlJM_KfgPeIedI7vNTRk5rJvF6Da4dMAJXFVm6zvBgRf2yrhLP-6mPnA5-m40sZO196wz_tkFfXpOA7bctNrhgVlnHJsb4VMBhyqajda2P8qSemnTXRCzyDTJAqqkK/s640/annualFC.png" width="640" /></a></div>
If we look at monthly totals, we see a similar trend — with foreclosure activity falling to some of the lowest levels we've seen since I began tracking monthly numbers in 2008. The first graph shows just how far totals have fallen since they peaked in 2008 and 2009. In December, we can see that new foreclosure filings ticked up slightly, while sales totals remained near all-time lows:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5zpK6EZfuHbtwSTo1iNuMqgu6ITEAaTMkJiMXuF3-0ENsa-aivCriR5SPcKH4bgi90Ikg8LucMs2HjhjSBSYTHQhfdJuMAVGGv-y5OVv7jIeQejB5TBN7cx0sNmdLL4xlTavuC3sJXvUM/s1600/fc1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5zpK6EZfuHbtwSTo1iNuMqgu6ITEAaTMkJiMXuF3-0ENsa-aivCriR5SPcKH4bgi90Ikg8LucMs2HjhjSBSYTHQhfdJuMAVGGv-y5OVv7jIeQejB5TBN7cx0sNmdLL4xlTavuC3sJXvUM/s640/fc1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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For all counties combined, filings were down in December 2016 by 17.4 percent, year over year, while sales at auction were down 29.2 percent. </div>
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Here are filings: </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyzvkbgbZU5PiP1oofkpFDqmS83AGLQuR6cJ6ZOwy2t_Rz2r6HkCTja-lQOW0owTyuErpEqt5xHB-R6N2br7RcRzQlgDljswvJvpky4DU_n5GFbCvG-IHcojYpV9i5bcyVtOedFAITD42u/s1600/filings1.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyzvkbgbZU5PiP1oofkpFDqmS83AGLQuR6cJ6ZOwy2t_Rz2r6HkCTja-lQOW0owTyuErpEqt5xHB-R6N2br7RcRzQlgDljswvJvpky4DU_n5GFbCvG-IHcojYpV9i5bcyVtOedFAITD42u/s1600/filings1.JPG" /></a></div>
And here are sales totals:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidJP7_jG-qlF0JZjIHHY7UvLoSS-xAp7OBbFTBpiBgKqJRsXYg-mBxFEup_b_9IiA1o_4Z5xMXA9bN-yFm5RAxFJVc-DlvTDazvHSxrBjHAPFsSL8zcMUrAJvfkjk3ndwCpSXauFkW_Pfw/s1600/sales1.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidJP7_jG-qlF0JZjIHHY7UvLoSS-xAp7OBbFTBpiBgKqJRsXYg-mBxFEup_b_9IiA1o_4Z5xMXA9bN-yFm5RAxFJVc-DlvTDazvHSxrBjHAPFsSL8zcMUrAJvfkjk3ndwCpSXauFkW_Pfw/s1600/sales1.JPG" /></a></div>
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Only Mesa and Broomfield Counties reported increases in filings (the Broomfield numbers were tiny overall), while only Adams, Boulder, and Pueblo counties reported increases in sales. In general however, it's safe to say that foreclosures in the state continue to be at at least ten-year lows. </div>
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As a final note, we can see which counties have the most or fewest foreclosures in relation to the number of households overall. The following chart shows the foreclosure rate given as the number of foreclosure sales adjusted for the number of households in each county (based on 2015 household totals): </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhq6JY58yZaagTsOZgGQBlwi7m1pE16_ybH1_abxg0e-RFsUmlhW1YlJV5VyF8pUNQgoA9Bn_XGVh7f1tu0iCMs3oQOFYmFcuN6ZYOlfukMwF5EbolfBM2pjG5i6n_RXLmkAXTWdOpcuF0v/s1600/rate.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhq6JY58yZaagTsOZgGQBlwi7m1pE16_ybH1_abxg0e-RFsUmlhW1YlJV5VyF8pUNQgoA9Bn_XGVh7f1tu0iCMs3oQOFYmFcuN6ZYOlfukMwF5EbolfBM2pjG5i6n_RXLmkAXTWdOpcuF0v/s400/rate.JPG" width="385" /></a></div>
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By this measure — in which a higher number indicates fewer foreclosures per person — we see that with zero foreclosure sales, Broomfield has the lowest rate, but Douglas County also shows a very foreclosure rate compared to other counties, with more than 57,000 households per foreclosure sale. Pueblo and Mesa counties — as has been the case for several years — show some of the highest foreclosure rates with Mesa showing just over 2,300 households per foreclosure sale. </div>
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Generally, higher income areas with more demand for real estate tend to show lower foreclosure rates while areas with lower incomes tend to have higher foreclosure rates. </div>
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This data is just the latest confirmation that demand for real estate in Colorado continues to be strong. In an environment such as we have today, even a household that goes into foreclosure can usually find a buyer before the property enters the foreclosure process. Thus, high demand for homes leads to few foreclosures, even as some households become delinquent on their loans. </div>
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<i>Note on the data: all foreclosure numbers are collected from the public trustee in each county measured.</i></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-31628260346975459902017-03-02T15:23:00.003-07:002017-03-02T15:26:23.793-07:00Rent growth in Metro Denver falls to 4-year low in 4th quarter of 2016 According to the latest data from the Apartment Association of Metro Denver, the average rent in Metro Denver during the fourth quarter of 2016 was $1,347, which was down from the third quarter average rent of $1,368.<br />
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The fourth quarter's average rent was up from the fourth quarter of 2015 with the average rent rising 4.2 percent from $1,292.<br />
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With a year-over-year increase of 4.2 percent, however, average rent came in at the smallest year-over-year increase since the first quarter of 2013, when the average rent grew 4.1 percent:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvd4fh8f0TIWVrW2o2UDY-oEAyAEDkDAQ2tj3GKO_5NxLhWq1QxLX7Kf05-UPA0VeYcRJ3Exh0CZcHn1Po5BLiX6dl-9rLo1WLUAlZZ49qn3QR5nFmlHPYSwr7VPy1AUCmk3syEwOvyCfN/s1600/rent1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvd4fh8f0TIWVrW2o2UDY-oEAyAEDkDAQ2tj3GKO_5NxLhWq1QxLX7Kf05-UPA0VeYcRJ3Exh0CZcHn1Po5BLiX6dl-9rLo1WLUAlZZ49qn3QR5nFmlHPYSwr7VPy1AUCmk3syEwOvyCfN/s640/rent1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Rent growth has been falling for the past six quarters after reaching a record high of 13.2 percent during the second quarter of 2015.<br />
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The average rent has also fallen, quarter over quarter, for the past two quarters. After hitting $1,371 in the second quarter of this year, the average rent fell to $1,368 during the third quarter and then to $1,347 during the fourth quarter:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4mcGhFwofb7keQDvQPuIUPdVvAn3a5s8egYo6dtUHW3CChCYY6Hxl5-xjbPXwAWFNV-yLiUdVIKD11CP1kvdQu7GzmWBcqZeHl4aKkfu0GxRypZnHL7JSa-TWNAZwoUZ8XVg4GzV1OFo4/s1600/rent2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="446" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4mcGhFwofb7keQDvQPuIUPdVvAn3a5s8egYo6dtUHW3CChCYY6Hxl5-xjbPXwAWFNV-yLiUdVIKD11CP1kvdQu7GzmWBcqZeHl4aKkfu0GxRypZnHL7JSa-TWNAZwoUZ8XVg4GzV1OFo4/s640/rent2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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If we adjust for inflation, we see a similar trend, although we can note that in real terms, the average rent fell between 2001 and about 2011:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvXAFWPqzCqAGtazJhdqlA97TDciFqoCSPeUIpYth1dYX7p_Z8tOcIbdt_1Ql4k55DEbULNfm-jBTT_1UVUToI1Zkz8jPS_FUeW5kh3POnUhUYU5mT5J9NzLellwAAZQqp0XlugGEwn1q9/s1600/rents3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvXAFWPqzCqAGtazJhdqlA97TDciFqoCSPeUIpYth1dYX7p_Z8tOcIbdt_1Ql4k55DEbULNfm-jBTT_1UVUToI1Zkz8jPS_FUeW5kh3POnUhUYU5mT5J9NzLellwAAZQqp0XlugGEwn1q9/s640/rents3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Flattening rents are likely a result of substantial increases in new housing construction that took place in metro Denver since 2012. In October 2016, for example, new housing permits reached the highest level recorded since 2001. </div>
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Not surprisingly, we also find that vacancy rates have increased as well. During the fourth quarter, the metro Denver' vacancy rate rose to 6.2 percent, which was up from the 3rd quarter rate of 5.1 percent. 2016's fourth quarter rate was down, however, from the vacancy one year earlier. The vacancy rate had surged to 6.8 percent during the fourth quarter of 2015, but fell again during the first quarter of 2016. Nevertheless, 2016's fourth-quarter rate of 6.1 percent is the second-highest vacancy rate recorded since 2010. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUjQqBJPHMqCfOaKMM9kzjYW_DX_v3oWlaq4fGdEAOfwXVdiMc996QiprHOJSzTNT_MAqdhCS4BYnulfLxQybzgLxKIwntKCs3pNDR2rljvaN5yKAX7Wy-F4Zvjk60lQovKffxgivdKyes/s1600/vacancy.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="466" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUjQqBJPHMqCfOaKMM9kzjYW_DX_v3oWlaq4fGdEAOfwXVdiMc996QiprHOJSzTNT_MAqdhCS4BYnulfLxQybzgLxKIwntKCs3pNDR2rljvaN5yKAX7Wy-F4Zvjk60lQovKffxgivdKyes/s640/vacancy.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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All of this points toward some stabilization in the market, although there is still little to indicate that we're entering a bearish market in multifamily housing, barring a sizable economic shock to employment or incomes.</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-37991649400531817802017-03-02T10:42:00.000-07:002017-03-02T14:03:52.774-07:00Home-loan payoffs in Colorado increase in 2016 after fourth-quarter surge <h3 style="background-color: white; margin: 9pt 0px 0px; position: relative;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">In Colorado, a release of a deed of trust occurs when a real estate loan is paid off whether through refinance, sale of property, or because the owner has made the final payment on the loan. Increases in release activity occur as refinance and home-sale activity increases, and rising release totals generally indicate increases in the demand for home loans and real estate.</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-weight: normal;">Eve</span><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">ry quarter, I monitor release activity in 21 counties</span> based</span> on population size and to ensure that as many regions of the state as possible are represented. More than 90 percent of all occupied households in Colorado are within the twenty-one counties chosen:</span></span></h3>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The number of home loans paid off in Colorado was up 14.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2016. Comparing the full year of 2016 to 2015, the total was up 2.8 percent. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Looking at all counties' measures, we find that during the fourth quarter of 2016, most areas reported increases in releases of deeds of trust: </span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgueMEQg11MMSGQKrB2U6ItqaRbq4r85ZVnXsUkFFwb5OJ0bHeMHrV0j2HYXRP3-GM0IwfFBAP3JvFqBBWR56j0nxX6Cv9KNYqCpZbFLunUuIsZLTZ43J1GLyl_vKdRlvsLYCodsXm4LJys/s1600/releases1.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6CIBCTjeoE4ddSFSBLtab6aV8sGe1HWqTiLoF9v_LGosasE0RZkZ3j6XVgg4wN1q5MDtiyDTC_Tq2xaiqAA5BSEOQB8eizJh7kixTx56nVgpdCjLymOeeKk4Y6G3lO8F6zJ2hFDGHqL81/s1600/chart1.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6CIBCTjeoE4ddSFSBLtab6aV8sGe1HWqTiLoF9v_LGosasE0RZkZ3j6XVgg4wN1q5MDtiyDTC_Tq2xaiqAA5BSEOQB8eizJh7kixTx56nVgpdCjLymOeeKk4Y6G3lO8F6zJ2hFDGHqL81/s400/chart1.JPG" width="337" /></a></div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Year over year, the largest increase was in La Plata County and the largest decline was in Alamosa County.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Taking the year as a whole, the changes were less dramatic: </span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf5AsMHT0hHvx9Cyet34crhK0YYDPxyc6sD5MUByCjrGwqWSqBP1XrMEqmWOwmadn_5V-KgVC2NTBqxQ81GKouTkj9TYH6STbZUz3RnhigGoEeQZ9qeW-SD2u_s937ZRaF6SHx-u2nefir/s1600/yeartotal.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf5AsMHT0hHvx9Cyet34crhK0YYDPxyc6sD5MUByCjrGwqWSqBP1XrMEqmWOwmadn_5V-KgVC2NTBqxQ81GKouTkj9TYH6STbZUz3RnhigGoEeQZ9qeW-SD2u_s937ZRaF6SHx-u2nefir/s400/yeartotal.JPG" width="285" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Statewide, releases were up 2.8 percent for the year overall. Again, La Plata County showed the largest increase, but Eagle County, in this case, shows the largest decline. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The fourth quarter of 2016 showed a sizable surge in release activity as can be seen in the first graph: </span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpTOrtzq96CXfmnPddQvTL1rUe8JY3C1qY81do1Mna8D5AMX-Gv-1foalKW3P3Un3wCq3VWN3eW-iHvqWJ4p2STPVt33peJPSM0-c0vNsj8cYqGF99tv46FbjhAJFDCfJ0S_7Pd6dt-FUg/s1600/releases1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpTOrtzq96CXfmnPddQvTL1rUe8JY3C1qY81do1Mna8D5AMX-Gv-1foalKW3P3Un3wCq3VWN3eW-iHvqWJ4p2STPVt33peJPSM0-c0vNsj8cYqGF99tv46FbjhAJFDCfJ0S_7Pd6dt-FUg/s640/releases1.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">For the fourth quarter of 2016, there were 93,147 releases, which makes the quarter the second-highest in releases since I began tracking the quarterly totals in 2008. During the fourth quarter of 2015, there were 81,398 releases. Over the past two years, there has been a sizable trend upward in release activity. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Although quarterly data only goes back to 2008, I do have <i>annual</i> data going back to 2000. Looking at annual data, we find that 2016 was not an especially remarkable year, in spite of the fourth quarter's surge: </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixNnL-gNhhbz-0eMvR5EUedsu_58N7V7TEyipSQM_TwpDU0-jAe5hQYQP7cKzydsOGgLWAbTyeYSyhXuUYx-LMXY-QE08xboYNysJwSBuFroDA32Ml2_GeYlDNUGnsC3Z30q5zV7UngFDG/s1600/annual+releases.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixNnL-gNhhbz-0eMvR5EUedsu_58N7V7TEyipSQM_TwpDU0-jAe5hQYQP7cKzydsOGgLWAbTyeYSyhXuUYx-LMXY-QE08xboYNysJwSBuFroDA32Ml2_GeYlDNUGnsC3Z30q5zV7UngFDG/s640/annual+releases.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Releases did hit a 3-year high in 2016, but this was comparable to what we saw in 2012 and 2013. Totals remain well below where they were in the run-up to the housing bubble in 2002, 2003, and 2004. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So where is release activity most concentrated? In raw numbers, we naturally expect the most activity in the most populous counties. However, when we adjust for the total number of households in each county, we find: </span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyzVoLyOMyZSIg6DCDzRPcdvyze6-ZKz_FpoJHZ_qTQH4QN9VrTChDkMvkVukrhnc10IIxbXTk62zBZ5qihnrnQyplXh8_9MDVGnouweDbOB1Qqc79D4_EXcQSoYQCmOwu0F_FFukhaWxU/s1600/chart2.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyzVoLyOMyZSIg6DCDzRPcdvyze6-ZKz_FpoJHZ_qTQH4QN9VrTChDkMvkVukrhnc10IIxbXTk62zBZ5qihnrnQyplXh8_9MDVGnouweDbOB1Qqc79D4_EXcQSoYQCmOwu0F_FFukhaWxU/s640/chart2.JPG" width="372" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In this case, a small number means more release activity given the population size. So, the county with the most release activity per household is Summit County with only 6 households per release. The least-active county is Alamosa County with 48 households per release. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If we had to identify factors that lead to more release activity, we could likely point to median income and employment trends as factor, as well as overall demand for real estate in that area. There isn't a flawless correlation here, but counties like Douglas, Weld, and Jefferson continue to see fairly solid employment and income numbers while some counties at the bottom of the list — Pueblo and Alamosa Counties, for instance — tend to have lower incomes and/or less job growth. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">And finally, it's always helpful to compare release activity against trends in mortgage rates. Since refinance activity is a large factor in release activity, we find that, historically, falling interest rates have tended to spur more release activity.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">This appears to still be the case, and we can see that in the quarters following declines in the mortgage rate, we see increasing release activity:</span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDYQShySltQN3dR0l6wMqhNo0DDC6ODDzU-GqgIbhGtIiOLYZMw89tLjQQybx-1sBypB56LBErgpyDjKmfyXebCwWds00FDiBA44edZrwuvsScUOKkpwA3NbCeHGzkX2TY82d287fT-AqT/s1600/releases5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDYQShySltQN3dR0l6wMqhNo0DDC6ODDzU-GqgIbhGtIiOLYZMw89tLjQQybx-1sBypB56LBErgpyDjKmfyXebCwWds00FDiBA44edZrwuvsScUOKkpwA3NbCeHGzkX2TY82d287fT-AqT/s640/releases5.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">There is a lag here, so the 4th Q's surge represents the result of the overall decline in mortgage rates that occurred through most of 2016. Note also how in the quarters immediately following the increases in the mortgage rate in 2013, releases fell to a multi-year low. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In late 2016, mortgage rates began to climb and remain above four percent during the first quarter of 2017. This is likely to lead to a leveling off in release activity, although this may not be apparent until after the first quarter this year. Moreover, a continuation of strong employment trends may mitigate interest-rate-based downward pressure on home sales and refi activity — and prevent sizable declines in release activity as well. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>Note on sources: all release activity is collected from the public trustee in each state listed. </i></span></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-30257146757870808202017-03-01T17:12:00.002-07:002017-03-01T17:14:59.309-07:00Snowpack is above average, but eastern Colorado experiencing drought conditionsYou'd have to be no paying attention at all to not have noticed that California has experienced an amazing turnaround in its drought conditions.<br />
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According to the <a href="http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?west">national drought monitor</a>, as recently as November 2015, the California drought map looked like this:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4IhvylrNja_qPMlEHQSCIE8yiIw7_46bIQfblMgqK4Fqt1q07-MBHgvFA_YMknpa2KPxUIAuS6MLRLRuweurZt7DKDiR1xhb81BxKqgL1ViTVOhxbwZuaC9neJ_idOYHmtJnd30-UuI3G/s1600/20151117_CA_trd.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4IhvylrNja_qPMlEHQSCIE8yiIw7_46bIQfblMgqK4Fqt1q07-MBHgvFA_YMknpa2KPxUIAuS6MLRLRuweurZt7DKDiR1xhb81BxKqgL1ViTVOhxbwZuaC9neJ_idOYHmtJnd30-UuI3G/s640/20151117_CA_trd.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Now, after months of well-above-average precipitation, the California drought map looks like this:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicep478n9HrivnmDkQKndbjRoHl7ID4-JuUcLl6_Mfmb8QfhXyYwKFQTsxVZzjkopJUgKR6jtHce6eIeIo7x2IulErIsVvBJEs3UAkaTe1J9xt60mFB1MR0ZhPoeSXC3_x5rk66TClXp5y/s1600/CAL_drought.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicep478n9HrivnmDkQKndbjRoHl7ID4-JuUcLl6_Mfmb8QfhXyYwKFQTsxVZzjkopJUgKR6jtHce6eIeIo7x2IulErIsVvBJEs3UAkaTe1J9xt60mFB1MR0ZhPoeSXC3_x5rk66TClXp5y/s640/CAL_drought.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
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Colorado's turnaround was not so abrupt, and went from severe drought in 2013, then to virtually no drought at all in 2016. Here's 2013:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgseGNXPMN-8hMJDnoI5d8Srf2OfqNiTcZGAuX1Qy5eAr7XNz2oEp3hLVk3_TeKmJ1c7Y8S7tgdFeYsFonEXySS5sEHKUAYehu4GbvavwcXz9TrQicdrIVkKxK06o9pBZCvA4POY5jqdl1_/s1600/colorado_drought+monitor+5-12-13.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgseGNXPMN-8hMJDnoI5d8Srf2OfqNiTcZGAuX1Qy5eAr7XNz2oEp3hLVk3_TeKmJ1c7Y8S7tgdFeYsFonEXySS5sEHKUAYehu4GbvavwcXz9TrQicdrIVkKxK06o9pBZCvA4POY5jqdl1_/s320/colorado_drought+monitor+5-12-13.png" width="307" /></a></div>
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And here's May 2016:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7lISmfdT7ComFDKFw7DJYD3avTqlAxLxvsGDNh7mEnVlmvw7iYCTI0FhNWo5JpB2kvieXodloFlf9TICxM2woTm0d0GeGoFS7I5wHl5pV8Ust5OdP7oEnGumUPFTAYjStcooZghV0W9sW/s1600/2016-05-19_weather_drought_map.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7lISmfdT7ComFDKFw7DJYD3avTqlAxLxvsGDNh7mEnVlmvw7iYCTI0FhNWo5JpB2kvieXodloFlf9TICxM2woTm0d0GeGoFS7I5wHl5pV8Ust5OdP7oEnGumUPFTAYjStcooZghV0W9sW/s320/2016-05-19_weather_drought_map.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Over the past several months, however, the Front Range has begun to see dry conditions again. Here's the current week:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYU10v1UFfhmHUZOUcrCzXun1NfUCcXCxh19cwDZEmE01L3nHjD_PSx2uwCa5BMZVvLrL7MEMflrYDIpQ05btOEtQdUKg-tYJ2mQOFd1RpxnoRi9VclbkbTFAprN5GSO7dvqvxTRl_1T2G/s1600/coloradodrought.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYU10v1UFfhmHUZOUcrCzXun1NfUCcXCxh19cwDZEmE01L3nHjD_PSx2uwCa5BMZVvLrL7MEMflrYDIpQ05btOEtQdUKg-tYJ2mQOFd1RpxnoRi9VclbkbTFAprN5GSO7dvqvxTRl_1T2G/s320/coloradodrought.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
This will lead to concerns over wildfire conditions, although fortunately, precipitation in the mountains has been high enough that water supply-concerns do not appear to be substantial at this time. If we look at <a href="https://www.weather.gov/bou/co_snowpack">recent data on snowpack</a>, we find that while Colorado started out very slowly this season, it is now well above where we've seen it in recent years. The black line is 2017 and the red line is the average:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzdRnY87oRhB4qf6X0_ot_YP8wq0qtZWEn1HCeJ1GNj2b9szVujmGgpOHbuG-cGOPglMFiveeoOeONeH99V880-RZumHG0Carx-UcT_wdPwszHqEkLHHvKuE6qFm9mi3gjclO77mDw0XSO/s1600/snowpack.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzdRnY87oRhB4qf6X0_ot_YP8wq0qtZWEn1HCeJ1GNj2b9szVujmGgpOHbuG-cGOPglMFiveeoOeONeH99V880-RZumHG0Carx-UcT_wdPwszHqEkLHHvKuE6qFm9mi3gjclO77mDw0XSO/s640/snowpack.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
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And, even the second-most pessimistic forecast shows total snowpack coming at at slightly above the median measure for the year:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7qAc1h_2bnNo9e_MNXmPSu8Ha4eZSADesVpqt4ZkGLnyLjGSFO2E_yqhDYE8wsCRuVwvxE0UzsTCaFYI_8_HTUOyLf90er8Dk7J44jHs6bNeBUHsx3P1JTldHfAZZl22gzRXBUq9_oy96/s1600/state_proj17.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7qAc1h_2bnNo9e_MNXmPSu8Ha4eZSADesVpqt4ZkGLnyLjGSFO2E_yqhDYE8wsCRuVwvxE0UzsTCaFYI_8_HTUOyLf90er8Dk7J44jHs6bNeBUHsx3P1JTldHfAZZl22gzRXBUq9_oy96/s640/state_proj17.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
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The water supply is increasingly important in terms of residential use, although agriculture uses over 90 percent of the state's water while producing <a href="http://www.ryanmcmaken.com/2016/01/how-important-is-cattle-ranching-in-west.html">a mere one percent of the state's production and less than two percent of the state's jobs. </a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-61678476973555910132017-01-08T15:11:00.001-07:002017-11-03T17:54:04.122-06:00Vacancy rate in metro Denver falls to 1-year low of 5.1 percentIn <a href="http://www.ryanmcmaken.com/2017/01/metro-denver-rent-growth-falls-to-3.html">yesterday's post</a>, we looked at apartment rent growth in the metro Denver area, and we noted that rent growth, even though it's been lessening in recent quarters, has been quite strong over the past two years.<br />
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Not surprisingly then, we find that apartment vacancies have been relatively low. During the third quarter, metro Denver's vacancy rate was 5.1 percent. That's down from the second quarter rate of 5.4 percent in the second quarter, but it's up slightly from last year's third quarter when the vacancy rate was 5.0 percent:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjYk7f5hAKRpg49M0onuoDAMF2h7W3DI9n4OgTR2yOZOHMrLtBTlxUa9u6N6_-S_D-f6spar4zM27ILm3_RC9Ts987qE4pTQXJ_JdQ_52Un0EiulzNTuH_GmWDZSsjyqBgwXuNJ7Id_kNu/s1600/vac1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjYk7f5hAKRpg49M0onuoDAMF2h7W3DI9n4OgTR2yOZOHMrLtBTlxUa9u6N6_-S_D-f6spar4zM27ILm3_RC9Ts987qE4pTQXJ_JdQ_52Un0EiulzNTuH_GmWDZSsjyqBgwXuNJ7Id_kNu/s640/vac1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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The metro-wide vacancy rate is at a one-year low, but remains higher than during most of what we saw during 2012 and 2013 when population growth was strong, and new housing units were not being produced in the larger numbers that are being produced now. </div>
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Traditionally, a vacancy rate of five percent has been called an "equilibrium" rate site it tends to imply neither a tight market, nor a market with excess supply. As an example of a tight market, we might look to the vacancy rates during the 1990s when vacancy rates frequently fell to levels near four percent (or even below). </div>
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With a vacancy rate of five percent, we're likely seeing a reflection of the overall economy in which job growth is solid, and so is new construction in housing. The new construction means that, even with new job growth, demand is not driving vacancy rates down to historic lows as they did in the 90s. </div>
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Indeed, one of the larger drivers of the vacancy rate has long been employment. In the second graph we can see how the vacancy rate frequently moved along with the unemployment rate over the past 25 years. when the unemployment rate is low, vacancies tend to be low. When unemployment is high, the vacancy rate tends to be high. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and recession however, we saw that the market tightened even as the unemployment rate increased. This was likely due partially to the accompanying foreclosure crisis which drove many former homeowners into rental units. It was also likely due to the crash in housing-unit production that followed the 2008 financial crisis. Today, however, it is likely that we will see the two variables track more closely as housing-production levels return to more normal levels in the absence of large numbers of foreclosures. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPOL47Yoy40UOGSRAmJT9e_pkHl00g4WmO7saCNk2UV_SbadHGzLki1b8FEafwqkUKxWbFvkVJfGfU1dztZCgZxE-anqXJXZ74Dfdp0c4xnflHU332EFVGt7V3B-pBzmOfAWINZDsM1Y-i/s1600/vacancy.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="468" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPOL47Yoy40UOGSRAmJT9e_pkHl00g4WmO7saCNk2UV_SbadHGzLki1b8FEafwqkUKxWbFvkVJfGfU1dztZCgZxE-anqXJXZ74Dfdp0c4xnflHU332EFVGt7V3B-pBzmOfAWINZDsM1Y-i/s640/vacancy.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-56625949349712839712017-01-07T21:12:00.001-07:002017-01-07T21:13:59.655-07:00Metro Denver rent growth falls to 3-year low in third quarter According to new data from the Metro Denver Apartment Association, the average rent in the metro Denver area <a href="http://www.denverpost.com/2016/10/18/denver-apartment-rent-down-for-first-time-since-2013/">grew 5.9 percent from the third quarter of 2015 to the third quarter of 2016</a>. That's the smallest year-over-year gain in the average rent since the second quarter of 2013.<br />
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The year-over-year growth rate has also been falling for the past five quarters. Year-over-year rent growth had reached an all-time high of 13.2 percent during the second quarter of 2015. Since then, the growth rate has gotten smaller each quarter, and as of the third quarter is now at a level not seen since the second quarter of 2013 when the year-over-year growth rate was 4.3 percent:</div>
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In the first graph, we see that rent growth had reached all-time highs last year, but things have since tapered off (the graph shows percentages):</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKAKf2zUvlP9b_UWZQ8cfLxBi6zABx72c2EPB0gdoO6SxTEZUlAS9S2GqRCLKCIetj-SBu45Jyfq5vCWoLxb0gpvGCzh6c7A1uGR0YOycHLT1TqsWeYRW19UYzj5bGDF5nIk2N7CWaxOSE/s1600/yoygrowth.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKAKf2zUvlP9b_UWZQ8cfLxBi6zABx72c2EPB0gdoO6SxTEZUlAS9S2GqRCLKCIetj-SBu45Jyfq5vCWoLxb0gpvGCzh6c7A1uGR0YOycHLT1TqsWeYRW19UYzj5bGDF5nIk2N7CWaxOSE/s640/yoygrowth.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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At 5.9 percent, the growth rate for this year's third quarter is at a level that would have been considered very run-of-the-mill throughout the 1990s. Considering that new housing permits reached <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DENV708BPPRIV">a 15-year high in metro Denver during October 2016</a>, it may be that the period of surging rents in metro Denver is over for now. </div>
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In the second graph, we see rent growth in non-inflation adjusted dollars over the past 35 years (the graph shows dollars): </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8Go2RYqmSxRhCzzmuHPgVrfKgj08EFhQUKgIjNQPWh8sNADOBb8lknQrqqBcJSbNJmQO34cmQfPfvQI7mfGKn2AYyExs21Leq3X-39IbBiB59jpVZoDpLU_8RkipDsZgmU-67ovL2WH6L/s1600/rents2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="446" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8Go2RYqmSxRhCzzmuHPgVrfKgj08EFhQUKgIjNQPWh8sNADOBb8lknQrqqBcJSbNJmQO34cmQfPfvQI7mfGKn2AYyExs21Leq3X-39IbBiB59jpVZoDpLU_8RkipDsZgmU-67ovL2WH6L/s640/rents2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Although rent increases have been getting smaller, they do remain in positive territory, so we do see that the overall trend has certainly been upward. </div>
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During the third quarter of 2016, the average rent in metro Denver was 1,358 dollars, which was up 5.9 percent from the third quarter of last year (when the average rent was $1,291), and down 0.2 percent from the second quarter (with an average rent of $1,371). It is very unusual, however, for the average rent to fall from the second quarter to the third quarter, further suggesting that the apartment market really is softening. </div>
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<b>Inflation-Adjusted Rents </b></div>
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It is always a good idea to look at rental rates with an eye on the inflation-rate as well. In recent years, rent growth has generally outpaced the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and we see that is still the case as of the third quarter. (The CPI was up only 1.1 percent, year-over-year for the third quarter). However, we can see that rent growth, when we take inflation into account is less than it is in nominal terms. Adjusted for inflation, the average rent in metro Denver looks like this: </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiByZNXweIfoTjHs-G_a6Zj5Vhr978WEoGMHV5WzGJxkVZPMXZMw3y5AtUmXnDnJ-lWdHHv1sGyEOrsOedwEWu27fitMyGgrozkT0zvfm8uHEJj6Wb0Ot0sUdPsl8cgkpaLqzFh05mRz7zY/s1600/inflation1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiByZNXweIfoTjHs-G_a6Zj5Vhr978WEoGMHV5WzGJxkVZPMXZMw3y5AtUmXnDnJ-lWdHHv1sGyEOrsOedwEWu27fitMyGgrozkT0zvfm8uHEJj6Wb0Ot0sUdPsl8cgkpaLqzFh05mRz7zY/s640/inflation1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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As the CPI has been growing very slowly in recent years, we find little difference in the recent trend between the nominal numbers and the inflation-adjusted numbers. What's different in this case is the fact that rents can go down for years at a time in real terms — as happened from 2001 to 2012. That has not the been the case since 2012, however, and even when adjusted for inflation, we find that rent growth has been substantial in recent years. However, as is the case with the nominal rents, the rate of year-over-year growth in rents has been falling for the past five quarters. </div>
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The takeaway here is that rent growth continues to be positive, but the trend suggests we're already moving beyond last year's record-level rent growth and may very well be moving into a period of more moderate rent growth, especially in light of increased activity in single-family and multi-family construction. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2334395618953078543.post-3636717570974685322017-01-07T11:57:00.002-07:002017-01-07T12:06:32.002-07:00Home Loan Payoffs Down 2.6 Percent in Third Quarter of 2016<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15.4px;">The number of mortgage loans paid off in Colorado was down 2.6 percent during 2016’s third quarter compared to the same period of last year. Mortgage payoff rose 21.6 percent from the second quarter to the third quarter of this year. </span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15.4px;">Public trustees in Colorado released a total of 87,192 deeds of trust during the third quarter of 2016, indicating a sizable increase in the amount of home purchase and refinance activity since the first and second quarters of this year. Typically, a release of a deed of trust occurs when a real estate loan is paid off whether through refinance, sale of property or because the owner has made the final payment on the loan. Release activity rises as refinance and home-sale activity increases. </span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnh4mzegyx8L-eKbfWGgfyOQWyRWOp36sjfCS_ieY3-886fRtSj2LCrXXi3pMeHKCxBaIaXtpGHtq1vcMpwcsIsB6Bx-VEzNycnjbbxXq7jn2btb-G2d17bloBZI1vNGyZpXK_YFsTk5Y3/s1600/releases1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnh4mzegyx8L-eKbfWGgfyOQWyRWOp36sjfCS_ieY3-886fRtSj2LCrXXi3pMeHKCxBaIaXtpGHtq1vcMpwcsIsB6Bx-VEzNycnjbbxXq7jn2btb-G2d17bloBZI1vNGyZpXK_YFsTk5Y3/s640/releases1.jpg" width="640" /></span></a><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15.4px;">In the first chart, we see release activity in the third quarter compared to the third quarter of last year: </span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFa-ZqWbRPr-esYFnc0n2gg1eK_4-Tb-dvgEQWMccTUC7BWmdq7HI5FvryuuCzMOPLx644VcTTYToKZxGCQ6Udp5-wLJy5bTq2zRA0wOA3AMK5DffUbJrsSBsJ9-I7GnKrURMtPiqTbiPI/s1600/yoy.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFa-ZqWbRPr-esYFnc0n2gg1eK_4-Tb-dvgEQWMccTUC7BWmdq7HI5FvryuuCzMOPLx644VcTTYToKZxGCQ6Udp5-wLJy5bTq2zRA0wOA3AMK5DffUbJrsSBsJ9-I7GnKrURMtPiqTbiPI/s640/yoy.PNG" width="481" /></span></a></div>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><br style="color: #222222;" /><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 15.4px;">In this case, we see that Summit County and La Plata County reported the most release activity over the period, thus suggesting more sale and refi activity in those areas. The largest decreases, on the other hand, were found in Boulder County and Eagle county over the period suggesting less sales and refi activity. Overall, release activity fell in 11 counties while increasing in 10 counties. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">The second chart shows release activity relative to the overall number of households in each county. A lower number indicates more release activity per household. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">In this case, there were only 7 households per release of deed of trust in Summit County, making it the most active county. The least active county was Pueblo County:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 15.4px;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgz-aV5mNKVTZnYOEwXoVHC-b-01XbqK5gIeqEubBfNzagr4KK6VqBJmAnC_n_yzK1lRuunB90nb9FEp72zME9BulcE_Yh3yvki-QXmsAUT4KN-T8b7jnmz7q7pnVaQNTS6jt28aYdk3LbP/s1600/rate_release.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgz-aV5mNKVTZnYOEwXoVHC-b-01XbqK5gIeqEubBfNzagr4KK6VqBJmAnC_n_yzK1lRuunB90nb9FEp72zME9BulcE_Yh3yvki-QXmsAUT4KN-T8b7jnmz7q7pnVaQNTS6jt28aYdk3LbP/s640/rate_release.PNG" width="352" /></a></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br style="color: #222222;" /><br style="color: #222222;" /><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 15.4px;">The third chart shows total releases for the first three quarters of this year compared to the same period last year. In this case, the largest increase was found in Alamosa County, and the largest decline was found in Eagle County. In the counties surveyed, activity fell 1.3 percent from 2015 to 2016. </span></span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdKgsV3Rkel36rrLduDwSM2LnNCprWnGxwHIFte7aqt0B1JnB0N7SB7GyFeqtvhVCLRjWID3_5h6-3jwbWUu-C-k43t8EmzKx4TAp3tPOlLdmxb6y2tAFg-QoDUpDJsA8MF0yDiW3-khzT/s1600/releases_ytd.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdKgsV3Rkel36rrLduDwSM2LnNCprWnGxwHIFte7aqt0B1JnB0N7SB7GyFeqtvhVCLRjWID3_5h6-3jwbWUu-C-k43t8EmzKx4TAp3tPOlLdmxb6y2tAFg-QoDUpDJsA8MF0yDiW3-khzT/s640/releases_ytd.PNG" width="368" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white;">In this case, it appears some of the most expensive counties — in terms of real estate — have been experiencing some of the largest declines in activity while the largest increases are seen in the lower-cost counties such as Pueblo and Mesa. There are exceptions, however, as in the case of La Plata county, which is a relatively expensive county that is nonetheless seeing continued increases in release activity. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white;">Being largely driven by refi activity, release activity is sensitive to changes in mortgage rates. In the next graph, we can see that following periods of decline in mortgage rates, release activity tends to rise. Release activity tends to fall in periods following increases in the mortgage rate: </span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_my2ZFeuzKSQInyu9ghjBOfmUQWebr7YuTpubtcvI_DteREbD9tcyzC68UMV5j6XAX4svo_uDRTvx-iAP9KOpclIRHgGFfut8w_2qFwvuhhKpY_m0sRGGHYket-F5ZlH6QYPucrhJOR7z/s1600/mortrate.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_my2ZFeuzKSQInyu9ghjBOfmUQWebr7YuTpubtcvI_DteREbD9tcyzC68UMV5j6XAX4svo_uDRTvx-iAP9KOpclIRHgGFfut8w_2qFwvuhhKpY_m0sRGGHYket-F5ZlH6QYPucrhJOR7z/s640/mortrate.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white;">For example, note how release activity fell significantly during late 2013 and early 2014 following an uptick in mortgage rates during 2012 and 2013. Similarly, an increase in mortgage rates in 2015 likely contributed to a slight drop-off in release activity in early 2016. In 2016, however, mortgage rates have fallen, which helps explain the uptick in release activity during the third quarter of this year. </span> </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;">Other factors are important too, however, and these include overall demand for housing, employment, and population growth. In Colorado, even in the face of increases in the mortgage rate, we often continue to see sustained real-estate transaction activity when jobs creation remains solid and population totals are steady or increasing. Overall, 2016 has seen little change from 2015 in terms of statewide release activity.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;">Barring a significant chance in economic conditions, this situation is likely to continue. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">(Totals for releases of deeds of trust are collected quarterly. This report tracks releases of deeds of trust as reported by public trustees in Colorado. The report includes twenty-one counties which are chosen based on population size and to ensure that as many regions of the state as possible are represented. More than 90 percent of all occupied households in Colorado are within the twenty-one counties chosen.)</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><br /></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com