February 2010 Housing Snapshot

Housing Snapshot is a very brief summary of the housing economy in Colorado. It's 4 pages of short articles and graphs covering mostly job growth and housing demand, and the housing markets in general.

Here's February's issue.

The latest Case-Shiller index data

In case you're looking for it, here's the link to the latest Case-Shiller home price index data.

Why didn't reporters attend your press conference?

Because it was a waste of time.

I'm generally against press conferences and other made-up events that are supposed to create news out of nothing. Press conferences are rickety, wizened old antiques from the 20th century. It is all well explained by Daniel Boostin in his classic book The Image: A Guide to Pseudo-Events in America. Press conferences are non-events dressed up as events.

That may have worked ten or twenty years ago when reporters were looking for things to do, but in the modern era when no reporter has the time to travel to a press conference, listen to a bunch of self-congratulatory chit chat, and then drive back to the office, something else must be done.

Conference calls tailored to specific reporters work well. But only if there is actual news worth reporting. That latter part is the tough part. But even if it's only sort of news, if you get a 100-word brief out of it, you've done well since you didn't waste a bunch of time planning an enormously inefficient press conference.

Not all events are necessarily bad, though, if they serve a purpose other than simply restating what's in a press release. The Bianchi Biz Blog has a nice piece here on how to get reporters to those events that are actually worth attending.

Apartment vacancies fell in fourth quarter

Apartment vacancies fell in fourth quarter
February 01, 2010 11:50 AM
THE GAZETTE

Local apartments filled up late last year at a pace not seen in eight years.

The vacancy rate for Colorado Springs-area apartments was 8.7 percent during the final three months of 2009, down from 10.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the lowest for any fourth quarter since the rate was 8.9 percent in 2001, according to a report released today by the Colorado Division of Housing.

More troops at Fort Carson and a lack of new apartments being built in the area contributed to the falling vacancy rate, said Gordon Von Stroh, a University of Denver business professor and who authored the report.

Even though the demand for apartments is on the upswing, rents averaged $711.66 in the fourth quarter, which was about $1.60 less than the same period a year earlier.

Rents likely remained stable because of poor economic conditions, particularly shrinking payrolls and rising unemployment, said Housing Division spokesman Ryan McMaken. If the apartment vacancy rate continues to fall, however, expect rents to begin to rise significantly, he said.

The Housing Division's report is somewhat similar to a report by Apartment Insights, an online research company, which showed the apartment vacancy rate fell to 7.4 percent in the fourth quarter. While different in their numbers, both reports showed the apartment vacancy rate trending downward from the same period a year earlier.

Examiner article: Unemployment up

Unemployment rises in Colorado to 7.3 percent
January 22, 2:57 PM Denver Economy Examiner Ryan McMaken

Colorado's unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) increased six-tenths of one percentage point from 6.7 to 7.3 percent in December, according to new data released today by the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment. Nationally, the unemployment rate remained at 10 percent for the second month, according to the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). December's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Colorado was 7.5 percent.

Year over year, the December rate increased in Colorado from 6.0 to 7.3, and the national rate increased from 7.4 percent to 10.0 percent.

Consumer prices down 0.2% in West, nationwide

Here's my latest piece as the Economy Examiner for Examiner.com:

Consumer prices fell 0.2 percent in Western states, including Colorado, from November to December. Prices in the region have risen 2.2 percent since December 2008 according to the report released Friday by the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Nationwide, consumer prices in December increased 2.7 percent over December 2008 and fell 0.2 percent since November 2009. Numbers are not seasonally adjusted.

...

Generalizing regional data to Colorado can be problematic. The West, as defined by the BLS, includes a large number of states with economic conditions that differ from Colorado's. Nevada and California, for example, are both included in the region yet differ significantly from Colorado in employment figures and in real estate prices. States with high unemployment and depressed real estate and more likely to see falling overall prices than states with more moderate unemployment and with more stable real estate prices.

Read the full article.

An old clipping

I recently found this old front page clipping. I never read a physical paper, so I have no idea on what page articles appear. Nevertheless, I like to get a featured story every now and then:

Below is some recent newspaper coverage of my most recent foreclosure report found here: http://dola.colorado.gov/app_uploads/docs/Monthly%20Foreclosure%20Reportseptember2009.pdf

Colorado foreclosure filings up sharply in September
Bizjournals.com - Mark Harden - ‎Oct 7, 2009‎
Foreclosure filings in Colorado's cities rose 71.9 percent in September from the same month a year earlier, but state officials said the big increase was ...

County foreclosure filings up
The Coloradoan - ‎Oct 9, 2009‎
By Coloradoan staff • October 9, 2009 Foreclosure filings in Larimer County and across the state increased in September, in part because of statutory ...

Mesa County foreclosure activity soars in September
Grand Junction Free Press - Wyatt Haupt Jr - ‎Oct 9, 2009‎
A distressed Mesa County housing market continues to suffer, as the number of completed foreclosures surged more than 216 percent last ...

Foreclosure sales drop
Denver Daily News - Gene Davis - ‎Oct 8, 2009‎
Foreclosure sales at auction in Denver last month dropped 29.3 percent compared to the same time period last year, a statistic that some experts believe is ...

Foreclosure rate more than triples in Mesa County
Grand Junction Sentinel - ‎Oct 8, 2009‎
By LE ROY STANDISH/The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel The number of completed foreclosures in Mesa County more than tripled in September of this year ...

Foreclosure filings, sales increase in Larimer, Weld in September
Northern Colorado Business Report - ‎Oct 8, 2009‎
By Staff DENVER - A report issued by the Colorado Division of Housing shows foreclosure activity in Larimer and Weld counties rising sharply in September. ...

Weld foreclosure filings, sales rise in September
Greeley Tribune - ‎Oct 8, 2009‎
Weld County foreclosure filings and sales continue a gradual rise through September, but have not completely returned to top of the state. ...

October 8 9News Interview

Here's the story that accompanied my Thursday morning interview on 9News:

Foreclosures still on the increase, but trend is slowing

KUSA - The Colorado Division of Housing has released local foreclosure statistics for September, and while the numbers continue to rise, the Division says they are improved over a year ago.
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The office said "completed foreclosures" rose by 21 percent in the state from last month, but the September numbers are down 5 percent from 2008.

According to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which regulates all national banks, foreclosures are "completed" when the ownership of the properties is transferred to the servicers or investors and the debts are extinguished.

The OCC website says the process varies by state and can take up to 15 months to finish.

The numbers show Mesa County led the state in foreclosures with a rise of 217 percent over 2008, with Denver County reporting a decrease of 29 percent since this time last year. Arapahoe County totals fell 13 percent.

Housing spokesman Ryan McMaken was on 9NEWS 7 a.m.

McMaken explained completed foreclosures were lower because borrowers are becoming more sophisticated in exploring alternatives to foreclosure.

"This is helpful in keeping down the number of foreclosures that proceed to the end of the process," McMaken said. "Also, the reach of the foreclosure hotline continues to expand and this has helped keep totals down."

As to why completed foreclosures increased since August, McMaken says the division has noticed a slow but growing trend of lenders processing foreclosures more quickly.

Overall, McMaken says there's little in the report to suggest that foreclosures are about to take off again in Colorado, but the problem will persist for a while as the economy continues a gradual recovery.

"I'd expect to see a little bit of growth from September to October in totals," according to McMaken, "but I still expect 2009's numbers to be either flat or lower than the numbers from last year."

The full foreclosure report is available on the Division of Housing blog: www.divisionofhousing.blogspot.com

New report on Colo. Metro areas from Bureau of Economic Analysis

Here are selections form the release:

ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN WIDESPREAD IN 2008

New statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis show that the slowdown in U.S. economic growth was widespread: 60 percent of metropolitan areas saw economic growth slow down or reverse. Real GDP growth slowed in 220 of the nation's 366 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in 2008 with downturns in construction, manufacturing, and finance and insurance restraining growth in many metropolitan areas. Growth in real U.S. GDP

In contrast, growth accelerated in 146 metropolitan areas, most notably in areas where natural resources and mining industries are concentrated such as Casper, WY and Grand Junction, CO. Grand Junction had the fastest real GDP growth (12.3 percent) of any metropolitan area in 2008 due largely to growth in natural resources and mining. The professional and business services industry group also showed strong growth in 2008, contributing the most to real GDP growth in 112 metropolitan areas.

The statistics of GDP by metropolitan area in current and real (chained) dollars are available from the Regional Economic Accounts page of the BEA Web site at http://www.bea.gov/regional/index.htm.

FDIC out of money

FDIC May Tap Treasury Line to Bolster Fund, Bair Says

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is considering tapping a Treasury Department line of credit as the agency examines ways to replenish a reserve fund depleted by 92 bank failures this year, Chairman Sheila Bair said.

Unemployment rates for states

Five states are now over 12%: Michigan, Nevada, Rhode Island, Oregon, and California. Of course, these are also the "official" numbers that exclude discouraged workers and the underemployed such as former financial sector workers who now work waiting tables.

See here for all states.