Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Releases of Deeds of Trust in Colorado Metros Stall in Spite of Record-Low Mortgage Rates


Releases of deeds of trust during the first half of 2014 were down significantly in Colorado metros compared to 2013 during the same period, and were flat from the first quarter of 2014 to the second quarter.

During the first half of 2013, there were 179,747 releases of deeds of trust in Colorado metros, and during the same period of 2014, there were 92,955 releases, for a year-over-year decline of 49.4 percent.

A release of a deed of trust is an event that occurs when a deed of trust (often referred to as  a mortgage) is paid off, either through refinance, sale, or when all payments have been completed on a home loan. It is a "positive" economic indicator in sense that areas with improving economies tend to generally also report increases in releases of deeds of trust.

For the second quarter alone, across Colorado's metropolitan counties, 46,696 deeds of trust were released. That's a 0.9 percent increase from the first quarter of 2014 when there were 46,259 releases.

Compared year over year for the second quarter alone,  releases were down 47.1 percent from the second quarter of 2013 when there were 88,217 releases. 2014's 2nd-Q releases were down 22.4 percent from the same period of 2012.

The first graph shows the quarterly total for releases. We can see that totals were near the lowest level recorded since 2008, and were quite low for all of the first half of 2014.


The second graph shows release totals compared against the same quarters for each year. Note that the second quarter of 2014 is the lowest quarterly total for releases recorded since 2008. The same was true of the first-quarter total. 



The low levels of release activity persisted in spite of the fact that mortgage rates continue at very low levels. Release activity is generally tied closely to movements in the mortgage rate, and refinances especially tend to increase as mortgage rates move down. However, in spite of low rates, releases have remained low, suggesting that the market for refinances has been largely exhausted. 

The third graph shows the relationship between the mortgage rate and release totals. While mortgage rates have increased from the extremely low levels seen during 2012 and 2013, rates still remain at historic lows under 4.5 percent. This, however, has failed to produce the sort of new loan activity seen during periods with rates that were 50 basis points higher, back in 2009. 


So far this year, compared to previous years, release activity is on schedule to finish down more than 50 percent compared to last year. The next graph shows total annual release activity, plus the first half of 2014:


Regional Comparisons 

Looking at release activity on a county by county basis, we find some significant changes in trends. The first chart shows quarter over quarter changes in each county surveyed. Douglas County, which, as a high-income county, typically tends to outpace other counties, but in this case saw a large drop off over the period.



The second chart shows year-over-year changes. In this case we find more uniformity in that all counties reported declines, year over year for the second quarter. Weld County, not surprisingly reported the smallest decline, owing at least partially to large amounts of oil-driven economic activity in the region.


The third chart shows year-over-year changes for the first half of each year. In this case,  all counties reported declines year over year with the smallest declines coming from Weld and Denver counties.


And finally, we can compare the counties more accurately by adjusting release activity for the total number of housing units in each county. In this case, we see the largest amount of release activity was in Weld, Larimer, and Jefferson counties, and the lowest amount was in Douglas County. 

It is unclear why Douglas County would show so little activity at this time, and it does suggest that some additional analysis is needed for the county in home sales and building permits and median home prices. 


Overall, these numbers point to a soft market for refinances, and to small number of new home sales, in spite of continued growth in median home prices in all areas. 

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Initial unemployment claims in Colorado down 13 percent in May

Initial unemployment claims in Colorado fell to 2,713 during May 2014, dropping 13 percent, year over year, from 3,132 during May 2013. The first graph shows the general trend, which is clearly downward since the large surge during the most recent recession began in late 2008. May's initial claims were also down from April 2014, which reported a total of 3,133.

May's decline was the third month in a row during which initial claims dropped, year over year. Overall, May's drop at a level commonly seen during non-recessionary periods.
To check for seasonality, we compare to other Mays, and we find  that May 2014's total was the lowest May total since 2008, before the financial crisis. Claims are at a seven year low for May. 



Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Economist: Colorado foreclosure filings about as low as they can go

From the June 4 issue of The Denver Post: 

Colorado foreclosure filings may be as low as they can go without a major economic boom, Department of Housing economist Ryan McMaken said Wednesday. 
Foreclosure filings fell 24.7 percent to 3,441 in the first quarter, compared with 4,571 in the first quarter of 2013. The number of foreclosure sales dropped to 1,718, down 41.5 percent from 2,935 in the year-ago period. 
"We would need a really excellent economy to get the numbers to go a whole lot lower than where they are now," McMaken said. "The rates will continue to be low in 2014, as long as the economy doesn't worsen significantly." 
Although foreclosure activity was down year over year, filings and sales increased 15.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with the fourth quarter of 2013, with filings jumping 15.4 percent to 3,441 from 2,981, and sales climbing 4.1 percent to 1,718 from 1,650. 
McMaken said he doesn't expect filings to continue to climb and blamed the bump on rising interest rates and slowing increases in home values. 
Purchases and refinance deals pushed "release of deeds of trust activity through the roof in 2013," he said. "We also saw big home price increases in 2013. Then we saw that all start to moderate toward the end of the year. We saw interest rates start to head back up, and then we started to see — related no doubt — home prices start to moderate as well." 
In 2013, 15,333 foreclosures were filed and 9,318 properties were sold, the lowest totals since 2004.

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Home loan payoffs in Colorado fall to five-year low

The number of home loans paid off in Colorado fell 49 percent from the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014, a decline partially fueled by increasing mortgage rates during the second half of 2013. According to a new report released today by the Colorado Division of Housing, public trustees in Colorado released a total of 50,128 deeds of trust during the first quarter of 2014, which was the lowest quarterly total recorded in any quarter since the Division began collecting quarterly totals in 2008. 98,321 deeds were released during the first quarter of last year.

Typically, a release of a deed of trust occurs when a real estate loan is paid off whether through refinance, sale of property, or because the owner has made the final payment on the loan. Decreases in release activity occur as refinance and home-sale activity decreases, and rising release totals typically indicate increases in the demand for home loans and real estate.

Release activity also fell from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014, dropping 19.6 percent.  There were 62,312 deeds released during the fourth quarter of last year.

“This is the fourth quarter in a row of declines in release activity, and it looks like the most recent refinance boom is already over,” said Ryan McMaken, an economist with the Colorado Division of Housing. “Mortgage rates are still low compared to where they were in 2008, but we’ve seen some significant increases in rates since 2012.”

Trends in release activity were not uniform across the state, although all of the 21 counties surveyed reported decreases in release activity from the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of this year. The largest increases were reported in Broomfield and Boulder counties where release activity decreased 61.5 percent and 58.9 percent, respectively. The smallest decreases were found in Eagle and Alamosa counties where activity decreased 21.1 percent and 31.1 percent, respectively.

Adjusted for the number of existing housing units in each county, the counties with the highest rates of release activity during 2014’s first quarter were Douglas, Summit, and Weld counties. The counties with the least activity were Fremont, Pueblo and Delta counties.

“Release activity is still relatively strong in some high-income areas and places with strong employment,” McMaken said.

Totals for releases of deeds of trust are collected quarterly by the Colorado Division of Housing. This report tracks releases of deeds of trust as reported by public trustees in Colorado. The report includes twenty-one counties which are chosen based on population size and to ensure that as many regions of the state as possible are represented. More than 90 percent of all occupied households in Colorado are within the twenty-one counties chosen.

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Home loan payoffs down 28 percent during fourth quarter of 2013

The number of home loans paid off in Colorado was down 28.2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2013, but comparing the full year of 2013 to 2012, the total was up 13.0 percent. According to a report released Wednesday by the Colorado Division of Housing, public trustees in Colorado released a total of 62,312 deeds of trust during the fourth quarter of 2013, compared to 86,816 released during the fourth quarter of 2012. 

Typically, a release of a deed of trust occurs when a real estate loan is paid off whether through refinance, sale of property, or because the owner has made the final payment on the loan. Increases in release activity occur as refinance and home-sale activity increases, and rising release totals generally indicate increases in the demand for home loans and real estate.

For the full year of 2013, releases of deeds rose to 344,942, and were at the highest level recorded since 2005 when releases totaled 400,565.   

“The fourth quarter of 2013 saw some big drops in release activity in response to interest rates heading up during the second half of the year," said Ryan McMaken, an economist with the Colorado Division of Housing. "There was so much refi and sales activity during the first half of the year though, that 2013 ended up being a bigger year than 2012 overall." 

Trends in release activity were not uniform across the state, although 20 of the 21 counties surveyed for the study reported decreases in release activity from the fourth quarter of 2012 to the same period of 2013. The largest decreases were reported in Boulder and Mesa counties where release activity decreased 48.1 percent and 49.1 percent, respectively. The only increase for the period was in Alamosa County where releases rose 20.9 percent, and the smallest decrease was found in Jefferson County where releases fell 7.0 percent.

Adjusted for the number of existing housing units in each county, the counties with the highest rates of release activity were Summit, Douglas, and Jefferson counties. The counties with the least activity were Fremont, Pueblo and Delta counties.

“We see a similar pattern here to what we see with many other housing indicators," McMaken said. "Metro Denver and northern Colorado's high release activity reflect a relatively high demand for real estate while other areas, such as Pueblo and Grand Junction, are showing less activity."
Totals for releases of deeds of trust are collected quarterly by the Colorado Division of Housing. This report tracks releases of deeds of trust as reported by public trustees in Colorado. The report includes twenty-one counties which are chosen based on population size and to ensure that as many regions of the state as possible are represented. More than 90 percent of all occupied households in Colorado are within the twenty-one counties chosen.

A deed of trust is similar to a mortgage and is a lien on real property to secure payment of an indebtedness. The deed of trust contains a grant of the property to the public trustee for the benefit of the holder. The deed of trust is released when the debt is paid in full. 


A deed of trust is similar to a mortgage and is a lien on real property to secure payment of an indebtedness. The deed of trust contains a grant of the property to the public trustee for the benefit of the holder. The deed of trust is released when the debt is paid in full. 

Friday, January 10, 2014

Commie Cowboys: First Footnote Sighting

My thanks to film scholars Cynthia J. Miller and A. Bowdoin Van Riper for mentioning my book Commie Cowboys in the introduction of their new academic book International Westerns: Re-Locating the Frontier:
Numerous scholars have explored the genre and its impact from various vantage points: Will Wright has examined the structure of the genre’s narratives, while Jon Tuska has offered more thematic critical approaches. Peter Stanfield has analyzed the role of “cowboy crooners” as exemplars of heartland values, while Ryan McMaken has focused on “commie cowboys” as cultural critique. While each of these is instructive when considering the genre in relation to American culture, the discussion becomes more complex when the genre is loosened from its cultural moorings.