Saturday, November 25, 2017

Foreclosure Sales Hit All-Time Low in September

Foreclosure sales in Colorado's metropolitan counties fell to a total of 95 in September, coming in at the lowest total ever recorded since this survey was begun in 2007. During the same period, there were 415 foreclosure filings.

This continues a multi-year trend of declining foreclosure activity, as we can see in the graph. September's foreclosure sales total was the lowest ever recorded with the next smallest being June's total of 106.

Foreclosure filings, meanwhile, we up slightly from all-time high's but remained near the lowest levels we've seen in the last decade. An all-time low was reached in July of this year when foreclosure filings totals dropped to 394.

These figures are totals for Colorado's 11 most-populous counties, plus Broomfield County. Foreclosure filings are the event that begins the foreclosure process, and foreclosure sales occur at the end of the process when properties are sold at auction, often going to the lender.


In the second graph, we see year-over-year changes in total foreclosure filings and sales. In September 2017, filings were down slightly from September 2016, dropping by 5.25 percent. Foreclosure sales dropped by much more, falling 38.8 percent year over year. As we can see in the graph, both filings and sales have been dropping each month for the past 10 months, and the overall trend for both filings and sales has clearly been downward since 2012.


Many counties differ in their foreclosure trends, and the number of foreclosure compared to the overall number of households can vary considerably.

If we look at foreclosure filings in each county on a per household basis, we find that Pueblo County has the fewest households per foreclosure — only 394 households per foreclosure — while Larimer County has the most — 2,771 households per foreclosure. Note that a larger number means fewer foreclosures in relation to population size. In other words, the larger the number of households per foreclosure, the lower the "foreclosure rate."

Also note that the counties with the lowest foreclosure rate tend to be higher-income counties such as Boulder and Douglas counties. Pueblo, Mesa, and Adams counties, on the other hand — which have higher foreclosure rates — have lower overall income levels.


A similar trend holds when we make the same comparisons using foreclosure sales. Pueblo has the fewest households per foreclosure sale (2,723) while Broomfield County reported no foreclosure sales at all.


Some counties are certainly more foreclosure-free than others. But, even those counties that have some of the highest foreclosure rates, relatively speaking, are still way down in their foreclosure totals from what we were seeing back in 2009 and 2010. Foreclosure activity continues to be at very low levels across all metro areas for now.

(This data is collected from the Public Trustee in each county.)

Friday, November 17, 2017

Colorado Homicide Rate Up in 2016

According to the FBI's annual crime report, released in September, Colorado's homicide rate increased to 3.7 per 100,000 in 2016. That's up from 2015's rate of 3.2 per 100,000, and from the 50-year low of 2.6 recorded in 2010.

2016's rate was a 12-year high, but still remained well below the homicide rates that were common during the 1970s and 1980s:


Compared to the nationwide homicide rate, the Colorado rate has been lower every year since 1963. The nationwide homicide rate in 2016 was 5.2 per 100,000.

Since the 1990s, the US homicide rate has been nearly cut in half, and the US rate hit a 52-year low in 2014 when it fell to 4.4 per 100,000.

Compared to other US states and Canadian provinces, Colorado's homicide rate places it as one of the lowest-homicide rates in in the US, and puts it on a par with central-Canadian provinces like Alberta and Manitoba:



As a map: 


Within the state of Colorado, metro areas can differ significantly. Over the past decade, the metro area with the highest homicide rate has in most years been Pueblo (no Pueblo data is available for 2008). In 2016, Colorado metro areas reported the following homicide rates, per 100,000:

Pueblo: 6.7
Grand Junction: 6
Colorado Springs: 4.5
Denver: 4.3
Fort Collins: 2.6
Greeley: 1.4

By this measure, Fort Collins and Greeley are among the safest places in the world. Grand Junction's homicide rate spiked in 2016, but with such a small overall population, it's impossible to say if this change reflects any real trend in the region. 

These numbers, however, are by full metro areas. If we look within a single metro area, such as the Denver Metro Area, we'll find significant differences there as well. For example, the City and County of Denver is the primary driver of homicide rates in the area. In 2016, there were 57 homicides in the City and County of Denver, and 22 in the City of Aurora. In the metro area as a whole, however, there were 124 homicides total. Thus, Denver and Aurora alone accounted for nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of all homicides in the metro area. This is in spite of the fact that those two cities make up only 37 percent of the total population of the metro area. 

Thursday, November 16, 2017

Case-Shiller: Denver home prices growth falls to 35-month low

According to the latest Case-Shiller report, home prices have been moderating throughout the year, with August's report showing a 7.2 increase over August of 2016. This was the smallest rate of increase found in 35 months, or since October of 2014.

August's growth rate is down from the November 2015 peak of 10.9 percent.


Meanwhile, home price growth in the 20-city index has been largely flat, but slightly growing over the past year — although overall growth is below that found in Denver metro. In august, the 20-city index grow rate was 5.9 percent, which is a six-month high.

While overall growth is outpacing the 20-city sample, we can also see that Denver's index value is now well above where it was during the last peak home-price period of 2006.

The  index for metro Denver had peaked at 140 back in August 2006. But now, the index value is 201, up 43 percent from 2006.

The 20-city index, meanwhile, is not even back to its former peak, and is now still down 1.7 percent from where it peaked during August of 2006.


Clearly, home price growth in Denver metro is strong, even when compared to a variety of other large cities throughout the US. This is partly fueled by job growth in general, and specifically by job growth in the energy sector.

Moderation in price growth, however, also reflects a similar moderation in job growth that metro Denver is now experiencing.

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Releases of deeds of trust in metros fall to 32-month low

A deed of trust is "released" when a home loan is paid off. This event is recorded by the public trustee in each county in Colorado.

Trends in public trustees tell us about how much activity there is in terms of home loan refinances and home sales. In many ways, activity in releases of deeds of trust are an indicator of demand for real estate purchases in Colorado, and historically, we have seen more release activity during times of economic boom. 

Activity Through September of This Yea

In September 2017, we found that releases had fallen to a 32-month low in the 11 largest counties in Colorado, plus Broomfield County. These counties include more than 90 percent of the population of Colorado. 

In September, releases totaled 20,730. That's the lowest total since February 2015 when releases totaled 18,826. September 2017's total up down from the same month a year earlier, falling 26.6 percent from September 2016's total of 28,252.



Looking at counties, individually, we find that year-over-year, the counties with the largest drops were Douglas, Broomfield, and Denver counties. There were no counties that reported increases during this period. 




Although September's total is clearly down significantly from December 2016's peak, overall activity continues to be generally robust as demand for housing and homes for purchase remains strong. Although the Federal reserve acted to allow the Federal Funds rate to rise slightly over the past two years, mortgage rates spikes in late  2016, but fell throughout much of 2017. Without a sustained increase in mortgage rates, we're likely to continue to see relatively strong numbers for releases of deeds of trust. At least, this will be the case until there is a general worsening of the labor market and economy overall.  

So, for now, release activity is moderating, but compared to most years since 2008, activity is relatively strong. This reflects ongoing interest in real estate purchases and in refi activity in Colorado. 


Friday, November 10, 2017

Suicides drop in Summit County — Is Altitude a Factor in Suicide Rates?

Summit Daily reports that suicides in the mountain county are on the decline this year after a spike upward last year:


Four people have died of suicide this year in Summit County, a sobering statistic but still a welcome improvement from the double-digit numbers that have marked past years. If the trend continues, 2017 could have the lowest number of suicide deaths in a decade.The major reduction comes on the heels of a concerted push by advocacy groups and local officials to combat mental illness and break down barriers to care. And while it's difficult to draw a causal link with such a small sample size, the numbers indicate Summit is moving in the right direction. 
"I would say one suicide is too many, but any reduction in the number feels like a win," assistant Summit County manager and former Summit Community Care Clinic CEO Sarah Vaine said. 
There were 13 suicide deaths in 2016, the highest number on record, eight in 2015 and 10 in 2014. The most recent year with fewer than four deaths was 2007, according to coroner's office statistics.
This is good news to be sure, although when dealing with such a small population, huge swings can occur in events like suicides, without it indicating any sort of established trend. It may be that last year was the anomaly, and that there was never any growing trend of suicides to begin with. We'll need more time to know. 

Given that Summit County is a high-altitude county, this discussion is an interesting reminder that high altitude has been connected to suicides in at least one study. Writing in the journal High Altitude Medicine and Biology in 2011, Barry Brenner, David Cheng, Sunday Clark, and Carlos A. Camargo, Jr. concluded there really is a correlation: 
Recent preliminary studies have reported a positive correlation between mean altitude and the suicide rate of the 48 contiguous U.S.states. Because intrastate altitude may have large variation, we examined all 2584 U.S. counties to evaluate whether an independent relationship between altitude and suicide exists. We hypothesized that counties at higher elevation would have higher suicide rates. This retrospective study examines 20 yr of county-specific mortality data from 1979 to 1998... 
Controlling for percent of age >50 yr, percent male, percent white, median household income, and population density of each county, the higher-altitude counties had significantly higher suicide rates than the lower-altitude counties. Similar findings were observed for both firearm-related suicides (59% of suicides) and nonfirearm-related suicides. We conclude that altitude may be a novel risk factor for suicide in the contiguous United States.
In recent numbers for the state of Colorado overall (February 2017), Denver showed up with the lowest suicide rate among counties at 13.9, while mountain counties had some of the highest rates, including Gilpin (37.8), Clear Creek (37.8), Park (37.8) and Teller (37.8) counties. Among large counties, Pueblo county had the highest rate at 28.5. (All rates are total suicides per 100,000 people.)

Unfortunately, since these are such small counties, population-wise, the statewide report notes  "there is no significant statistical difference between the rate for this region and all other regions with the exception of Denver County."
Even if there is a clear correlation here, the implications for public policy are few, except that local healthcare workers ought to be aware of risk factors. The possible correlation here is interesting, nonetheless, and possibly of use when other alleged causes of suicide are put forward. 

Thursday, November 2, 2017

Releases of deeds of trust in Colorado metros fall to 12-month low in June

A deed of trust is "released" when a home loan is paid off. This event is recorded by the public trustee in each county in Colorado.

Trends in public trustees tell us about how much activity there is in terms of home loan refinances and home sales. In many ways, activity in releases of deeds of trust are an indicator of demand for real estate purchases in Colorado, and historically, we have seen more release activity during times of economic boom. 

Activity Through June of This Yea

In June 2017, we found that releases had fallen to a 12-month low in the 11 largest counties in Colorado, plus Broomfield County. These counties include more than 90 percent of the population of Colorado. 

In June, releases totaled 23,422. That's the lowest total since June 2016 when releases totaled 23,265. June 2017's total up down slightly from the same month a year earlier, rising 0.7 percent from June 2016's total of 23,265.



Looking at counties, individually, we find that year-over-year, the counties with the largest drops were Adams, Broomfield, and Boulder counties. The largest increases were found in Weld and Denver counties. 



Although June's total is clearly down significantly from December 2016's peak, overall activity continues to be generally robust as demand for housing and homes for purchase remains strong. Thanks to low interest rates and rising home prices, it remains relatively easy to obtain refinances for current mortgages, and home continue to sell quickly, with the possible exception of high-end homes. 

All of these factors continue to put upward pressure on release activity.